全球股票策略 -2026 年股票展望：股票方向与区域偏好-Global Equity Strategy _Equity 2026 Outlook part 1_ Equity Direction and Regional Preferences

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Global Equity Strategy and provides an Equity 2026 Outlook with a target of 1090 for MSCI AC World by the end of 2026, representing an 11% upside potential [2][38]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Market Bubble Potential: - There is a 35% chance of a bubble forming, driven by the rapid adoption of Gen AI and the potential monetization of government debt, which could shift investments from nominal to real assets [3][64]. - The report identifies seven preconditions for a bubble, which are currently in place, including a prolonged period of equities outperforming bonds and high retail buying [39][70]. 2. US Market Outlook: - The US is upgraded to a small overweight position, with expectations that it will outperform other regions due to high household equity ownership and significant AI investment contributing to GDP growth [7][9]. - US GDP growth is projected to be supported by a 10% increase in equities, adding approximately 1% to GDP [7][9]. 3. Global Economic Growth: - Global GDP growth has been revised up to 3.3% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026, with upside risks primarily from Gen AI and onshoring [16][22]. - The report anticipates a near-term slowdown in growth, particularly in the US, before a global acceleration starting in Q2 2026 [18][30]. 4. Regional Preferences: - Emerging Markets (EM) are viewed as a tactical overweight for Q1 2026, with expected 15% EPS growth and a favorable environment for AI-exposed stocks [10][11]. - Europe is downgraded to benchmark status due to limited AI exposure and political risks, despite attractive valuations [11]. - Japan is underweight due to high operational leverage in a slowing growth environment and concerns over wage growth impacting profit margins [13]. 5. Valuation and Earnings: - The report suggests that current valuations are not indicative of a bubble, with the P/E ratio for major indices being significantly lower than historical bubble peaks [70][71]. - Earnings growth is expected to be less sensitive to economic cycles than usual, with 14% EPS growth forecasted for 2026 [9][41]. Additional Important Insights - AI's Impact: The rapid adoption of Gen AI is expected to significantly boost productivity, with potential increases in productivity by 1-2% justifying higher market valuations [46][57]. - Government Debt Concerns: The report highlights the risk of governments inflating debt away, which could lead to a shift in investment from nominal to real assets, thereby lowering equity risk premiums [62][68]. - Market Sentiment: The report notes a buy-on-dip mentality among investors, which is characteristic of late-stage bull markets, but emphasizes that the current market is not yet in a bubble [45][76]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market outlook, regional preferences, and potential risks and opportunities in the equity markets.