G10 外汇 2026 前瞻：美元的多空逻辑-G10 FX Year Ahead 2026_ the (USD) long and short of it

Summary of G10 FX Year Ahead 2026 Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the G10 foreign exchange (FX) market outlook for 2026, particularly the performance of the US dollar (USD) against other major currencies such as the Japanese yen (JPY), Australian dollar (AUD), euro (EUR), and British pound (GBP) [1][2][3][4][5][6][8]. Key Points and Arguments USD Outlook - Near-term bearishness on USD has been reduced, with a focus on tactical long positions against JPY and AUD into Q1 2026, supported by constructive price action and technical indicators [1][20]. - A bullish bias for USD is maintained into 2026, with expectations for USD to strengthen against EUR, GBP, AUD, and ZAR [4][20][77]. - The forecast for EUR/USD has been revised down to 1.22 from 1.25 for the end of 2026, reflecting a cautious outlook despite potential for growth convergence and stimulus in Europe and China [2][16][20]. Currency Positioning - Current FX positioning indicates a shift to neutral for USD, with corporates and officials supporting USD against EUR, while the market is slightly short USD compared to earlier in the year [3][55][59]. - The market is long on EUR and AUD, while being short on NZD and CAD, which supports a bullish call on GBP and caution on AUD and JPY [55][59]. Technical Analysis - The DXY (US dollar index) is observed to potentially form a double bottom pattern, suggesting further upside into 2026, with a target range of 103.20 to 104.50 [74][80]. - A head and shoulders top pattern is noted for AUD/USD, indicating potential downside to around 0.6218 by Q1 2026 [90]. Economic Factors - The burden of proof for near-term rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is placed on upcoming US economic data, with expectations that the Fed will remain on hold until June 2026 [17][20]. - Structural outflows from Japan and fiscal risks are highlighted as ongoing concerns for JPY, while GBP faces headwinds from fiscal risks and rate cuts [20][38]. Investment Strategies - Tactical trades recommended include shorting JPY against USD and EUR, and buying EUR/USD digital calls to express a bullish view on EUR [40][46]. - A strategy to sell EUR/GBP skew is suggested, capitalizing on the current elevated fiscal risk premium ahead of the UK budget [49][50]. Market Dynamics - The correlation between USD and equities is expected to remain positive, with USD often weakening during equity sell-offs, indicating a complex relationship between the two [27][28]. - The impact of AI on USD remains uncertain, with potential for both positive and negative effects on hiring and productivity [32]. Other Important Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic indicators and geopolitical developments, particularly in Europe and China, which could significantly influence USD performance in the latter half of 2026 [31][32]. - The potential for renewed USD weakness in 2026 is acknowledged, particularly if the Fed adopts a dovish stance and if fiscal stimulus in Europe and China materializes [31][38]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and strategic recommendations from the G10 FX Year Ahead 2026 conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the anticipated trends and positioning in the FX market.