中国经济展望 -数据解读（2025 年 11 月）-China Economic Perspectives_ China by the Numbers (November 2025)

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the Chinese economy, focusing on various sectors including property, manufacturing, infrastructure, and retail. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Economic Growth Trends: - October growth showed a significant slowdown across various sectors, with fixed asset investment (FAI) declining by 11.2% YoY in October, worsening from -6.8% previously [4][88]. - The property sector experienced a notable contraction, with property sales growth dropping to -18.8% YoY in October, compared to -10.5% in September [74]. - Industrial production (IP) growth slowed to 4.9% YoY in October, down from 6.5% in September, indicating a broader economic deceleration [98]. 2. Sector-Specific Performance: - Manufacturing investment fell by 6.7% YoY, while infrastructure investment declined by 12.1% YoY [88]. - Retail sales growth decreased to 2.9% YoY in October, reflecting a high base effect from previous trade-in subsidies [112]. 3. Future Economic Outlook: - GDP growth is expected to decelerate to around 4.2% YoY in Q4 2025, with a full-year average of 4.9% for 2025, aligning with the government's target of "around 5%" [4][6]. - The property downturn is anticipated to persist, with expectations of a 5-10% decline in property sales and new starts in 2026, and a smaller contraction in 2027 [74]. 4. Policy Measures: - Modest policy easing is underway, including RMB 500 billion from special financial tools and additional local government bond quotas to stabilize economic activity [5]. - The People's Bank of China (PBC) is expected to cut policy rates by 20bps by the end of 2026, with potential mortgage rate cuts of 30-40bps [5]. 5. Inflation and Credit Conditions: - October's CPI increased to 0.2% YoY, while PPI narrowed its decline to -2.1% YoY [127]. - Credit growth has softened, with new bank loans recorded at RMB 220 billion in October, significantly lower than the previous year [142]. Other Important Insights - The high-frequency data indicates continued weakness in property activities, with a 33% YoY decline in property sales in early November [40]. - The consumer confidence index has shown slight recovery but remains below pre-COVID levels, reflecting cautious consumer sentiment [112]. - The accumulated household excess savings remain high, indicating a cautious outlook on spending [106]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the challenges and expectations for the Chinese economy moving forward.