中国存储专家电话会 -核心要点-China Memory Expert Call - Key Takeaways

Key Takeaways from the China Memory Expert Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the semiconductor industry, specifically the memory segment in China, including DRAM, NAND, and HBM technologies [1][2]. Core Insights 1. Pricing Trends: - Traditional memory prices are projected to rise through 2Q26 due to lean inventory levels [1]. - DRAM and NAND pricing surged by 23% and 20% respectively in 4Q25, with forecasts of further growth of 17-18% for DRAM and 15-16% for NAND in 1Q26 [2]. 2. Inventory Levels: - Current channel inventories are notably low, with DRAM at 1.5-2 months and NAND at 2-2.5 months, below the normalized range of 2.5-3 months [2]. 3. Capacity Expansion: - Significant capital expenditure is expected in China, with YMTC and CXMT planning to invest $15-16 billion in capacity expansion [1][4]. - CXMT aims to increase DRAM capacity from 198kwpm to 270kwpm, while YMTC plans to expand NAND output from 210kwpm to 290kwpm [4][9]. 4. Competitive Landscape: - Competition is intensifying in NAND and LPDDR5, with YMTC positioned favorably due to its X-Stacking technology [3]. - CXMT is lagging behind, estimated to be 1.5-2 generations behind in DRAM technology [3]. 5. Market Sentiment: - There is a bullish outlook on memory pricing and capital expenditure in China, with local players like AMEC expected to benefit significantly [5]. Additional Important Points - SPE Constraints: The ongoing SPE bans are hindering progress in LPDDR6 and HBM3e production, limiting domestic capabilities [1][3]. - HBM Pricing: HBM pricing is expected to stabilize or slightly soften in 2026 due to aggressive capacity expansion aligning supply with demand [2]. - Consumer Electronics Impact: While memory players are expected to benefit from rising prices, the consumer electronics supply chain may face margin pressures [5]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the expert call regarding the semiconductor memory market in China, highlighting pricing trends, competitive dynamics, and capacity expansion plans.