半导体板块：晶圆制造设备需求维持高位；CoPoS、HBM-TCB 等后端技术值得关注-Semiconductor_SPE sector_ WFE demand remains high; CoPoS, HBM-TCB, and other back-end technologies noteworthy

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry Focus: Semiconductor and Semiconductor Capital Equipment (SPE) sector - Market Forecast: Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) market is projected to grow by 2% YoY in CY2025, 11% in CY2026, and 8% in CY2027, driven by increased demand for generative AI and improved capital expenditure (capex) from device makers [2][6][15] Core Insights - WFE Market Growth: The WFE market grew approximately 9% YoY in 2024 and is expected to expand further due to rising demand for complex technologies such as DRAM interconnect etching and 3D NAND flash memory layers [6][15] - Semiconductor Shipments: Global semiconductor shipments increased by 28% YoY in September 2025, marking 25 consecutive months of growth, driven by advanced logic chips and HBM for generative AI [6][15] - Advanced Packaging Technologies: The Taiwan advanced packaging equipment sector is expected to see structural growth, with significant demand for CoWoS and CoPoS technologies, particularly in AI applications [7][24][47] Technology Developments - CoWoS and CoPoS: CoWoS capacity is forecasted to reach 105k and 125k wafers per minute (wfpm) by the end of 2026 and 2027, respectively. CoPoS is anticipated to succeed CoWoS by 2028, potentially increasing average selling prices (ASP) by 50-100% due to its complexity [7][24][47] - HBM-TCB Technology: Flux-based TCB is expected to dominate until 20-Hi HBM5, with a shift to HCB anticipated due to physical limitations. Hanmi is expected to maintain a significant market share in TCB technology [8][49] Stock Recommendations - Preferred Stocks: - Japan: Tokyo Electron (8035 JT) and Advantest (6857 JT) are favored due to their exposure to the growing WFE market and increased test times [8][49] - Taiwan: Grand Process Tech (3131 TT) is preferred over Scientech (3583 TT) and All Ring Tech (6187 TT) based on advanced packaging ramp-up timelines [7][47] Additional Insights - Capex Trends: TSMC's capex is projected to increase to $48 billion in 2026 and $52 billion in 2027, driven by generative AI demand and technology transitions [24][47] - Memory Chip Market Dynamics: The memory chip market is expected to experience a stronger and longer-lasting upcycle, with rising prices for DRAM and NAND chips due to supply constraints and increased demand for AI applications [24][25] - Chinese Semiconductor Market: Preference for SPE makers and foundries is noted, with expectations of sustained capex and domestic demand, while fabless companies may face margin pressures [25][49] Conclusion - The semiconductor industry is poised for significant growth driven by advancements in AI and technology, with specific focus on WFE and advanced packaging technologies. Stock recommendations reflect a positive outlook on companies well-positioned to benefit from these trends.