中国股票策略-2025 年第三季度财报终评：MSCI 中国指数转呈净不及预期，终结 2024 年第四季度以来的符合预期趋势-China Equity Strategy-3Q25 Earnings – Final Cut MSCI China Turns to Net Miss, Pausing In-Line Streak Since 4Q24

Summary of MSCI China 3Q25 Earnings Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the MSCI China index, which includes a broad range of companies across various sectors in China. The earnings results for 3Q25 indicate a net miss in terms of the number of companies reporting earnings. Key Findings Earnings Performance - Net Miss: MSCI China reported a net miss by the number of companies (-9.4%) while achieving in-line results by weighted surprise (+2.8%). This marks a break in the in-line streak since 4Q24 [2][19]. - Comparison to Previous Quarter: The results softened compared to 2Q25, which had a net miss of -2.7% and a weighted surprise of +2.7% [19]. Revenue Performance - Revenue Miss: Reported revenues missed consensus forecasts by number of companies (-22.9%) but were in line when measured by weighted surprise (+0.0%). This represents a worsening from 2Q25, which had a miss of -12.5% [3][29]. Sector Analysis - Earnings Beats: - Financials: Benefited from improving net interest income (NII) growth and solid bank fee income, with key contributors including China Life Insurance and Ping An Insurance [4][22]. - Materials: Saw earnings beats due to a rebound in commodity prices, with key contributors being Zijin Mining and CMOC Group [4][22]. - Earnings Misses: - Consumer Staples: Experienced significant misses due to ongoing housing market weakness and deflation pressures, with major contributors to the miss being Wuliangye and Anhui Gujing Distillery [4][22]. - Consumer Discretionary: Also recorded misses, particularly in the auto sector, with key contributors including Li Auto, BYD, and Anhui Jianghuai Automobile [22]. Price Reaction - Market Reaction: The price reaction to earnings was muted, with only 42% of companies that beat earnings seeing positive T+1 moves, while 59% of those that missed saw negative moves [5][38]. Industry Performance and Revisions - Overall Index Performance: From end-August to November 27, the MSCI China index returned 3%, with Materials, Consumer Discretionary Retailing, and Energy gaining over 10% [6][14]. - EPS Revisions: Only the Materials sector saw upward revisions to 2026 consensus EPS estimates, while Consumer Discretionary Retailing and Energy remained flat [17]. Additional Insights - Earnings Estimate Revision Breadth: The breadth of earnings estimate revisions indicates a trend where sectors like Software, Consumer Services, and Auto faced notable downward revisions, while Insurance, Diversified Financials, and Consumer Staples Retailing saw upward revisions [17][18]. Conclusion - The 3Q25 earnings season for MSCI China reflects a challenging environment with a net miss in earnings and revenue, particularly in the Consumer Staples and Discretionary sectors. The muted market reaction suggests investor sentiment is more sensitive to negative results than positive surprises. The performance of Financials and Materials stands out as a bright spot amidst broader challenges.