2025-12-01 03:18Meituan (3690.HK) 3Q25 Review Summary Company Overview - Company: Meituan (3690.HK) - Market Cap: HK$639.4 billion / $82.1 billion - Enterprise Value: HK$464.2 billion / $59.6 billion - Current Price: HK$102.50 - Target Price: HK$120.00 - Upside Potential: 17.1% [7][3] Key Financial Highlights - 3Q25 Adjusted Operating Loss: -Rmb17.5 billion (better than expected vs. GSe of -Rmb18.8 billion) [1] - Food Delivery and Instashopping Losses: Estimated at -Rmb19 billion [1] - New Initiatives Loss: -Rmb1.3 billion (better than GSe/VA of -Rmb2.3 billion) [1] - Expected 4Q Losses: Substantial food delivery losses anticipated, but a rebound expected in 1Q26 due to CNY seasonality [1] - 3Q On-Demand Losses: Peaked, with narrower losses expected for 4Q25E/1Q26E [1] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Market Share: Meituan maintains leading GTV market share with higher AOV orders [1] - Comparison with Competitors: Meituan's losses per order are -Rmb2.6 compared to Alibaba's -Rmb5.2 [1] - Competition: Increased competition from Douyin and Amap affecting in-store, hotel, and travel margins [1] Strategic Insights - Path to Profitability: Increased visibility for international business, with Keeta turning profitable in Hong Kong [1] - User Subsidies: Focus on protecting high-quality users to support higher ROI and lifetime value [19] - Investment in New Initiatives: Continued investment in Instashopping and overseas expansion, with expected losses in the short term [30] Future Outlook - Revenue Growth Forecast: - 2024: Rmb337,591.8 million - 2025E: Rmb366,000.0 million - 2026E: Rmb408,093.2 million - 2027E: Rmb451,767.9 million [7] - EBITDA Forecast: - 2024: Rmb49,119.6 million - 2025E: -Rmb13,207.4 million - 2026E: Rmb20,824.3 million - 2027E: Rmb53,882.2 million [7] Risks and Challenges - Competition Risks: Potential for prolonged losses from competitors like Alibaba, which could suppress Meituan's margins [21] - Market Dynamics: Shift from capital-driven competition to efficiency-driven competition expected [29] - Regulatory Risks: Food safety concerns and stricter regulations could impact operations [30] Valuation Scenarios - Base Case Valuation: HK$120 per share, reflecting a more fragmented long-term landscape with reduced market share [25] - Bull Case Valuation: HK$152 per share, assuming continued leadership and ability to capture high-quality users [20] - Bear Case Valuation: HK$77 per share, if competition significantly impacts margins and growth [21] Conclusion - Despite near-term profitability challenges, Meituan's leadership in local services and potential for recovery in food delivery and Instashopping positions it favorably for future growth. The company maintains a Buy rating based on its strategic initiatives and market position [26]