电子烟调研更新与格局分析

Summary of Conference Call on E-Cigarette Market Update and Analysis Industry Overview - The heated tobacco (HNB) market in Japan is experiencing intensified competition among major brands including IQOS, Glow, and Japan Tobacco's Plum, leading to concerns about the sales performance of Smoore and British American Tobacco's Glow Halo products, which have not met expectations. The current stock price of Smoore is nearing its bottom range [1][2]. Key Points on Smoore's Performance - Smoore's traditional vaping business is showing robust growth, particularly in the European market, which is expected to grow by 20% to 30% due to the contribution from newly added local brand businesses. The U.S. market is also seeing a recovery in compliant products, as indicated by leading companies' financial reports showing signs of market rebound [1][3]. - The company's projected operating net profit for 2025 is approximately 1.3 billion RMB, with traditional vaping business profits expected to range between 1.5 billion to 2 billion RMB, excluding medical beauty vaporization R&D expenses and one-time reserves [4][6]. Insights on Glow Halo Product Launch - The Glow Halo product was launched nationwide in Japan in September 2025 and is also entering markets in Italy and Poland. While the launch progress is in line with expectations, the promotional effectiveness has been slightly below expectations due to aggressive discounting strategies by Japan Tobacco, which has attracted new HNB users, including some from IQOS and Glow [1][5]. - Glow Halo is positioned as a mid-to-high-end product, avoiding reliance on discounts and instead using a strategy of offering free pods with device purchases to cultivate user habits. Long-term prospects for Glow Halo remain positive due to its advantages in heating time, smart design, and user experience, with expected sales in Japan reaching around 2 million units and pod sales in the tens of billions by 2025 [1][5]. Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The competitive landscape in Japan's HNB market is intensifying, with Philip Morris International (PMI) showing a 16% growth in HNB products and Japan Tobacco achieving a 40% growth rate. This competitive pressure is impacting the short-term penetration rate of Glow Halo [5]. - Future catalysts for Smoore's performance include financial reports from British American Tobacco, consumer data from investor conferences, progress in new market launches, and FDA approval developments, all of which could drive growth in Smoore's performance [3][6].