家电行业2026年度策略：经营韧性，出海红利，左侧成长

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - Home Appliance Industry: The overseas market share of home appliance companies continues to rise, with significant demand recovery expected in the second half of 2026, particularly in the U.S. due to interest rate cuts and real estate demand, which will boost appliance demand and benefit related companies [1][4][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - Resilience in Operations: Focus on high dividend and high ROE white goods companies, which have robust assets and strong performance release capabilities. The demand in the U.S. is expected to increase due to interest rate cuts and real estate recovery [4][6]. - Export Opportunities: Many export-oriented companies faced challenges in 2025 due to overseas capacity ramp-up and order issues, but a recovery is anticipated in 2026. Chinese home appliance companies are gaining market share from Japanese and Korean firms in emerging markets, with significant growth potential in Europe and the U.S. [4][6]. - Black Appliance Industry: The competitive landscape is improving, with a reduction in panel cyclicality and near-monopoly in domestic panel capacity, easing cost pressures. Competitors like Xiaomi are slowing down, allowing Chinese black appliance companies to enhance global market share and profit margins [1][9]. - Mini LED Products: Despite an overall decline in the black appliance industry during the 2025 Double Eleven shopping festival, the penetration rate of Mini LED products increased to 47%, with an average price rise of 14%, indicating robust demand for high-end products [1][10]. Additional Important Insights - North American Market: Inventory levels in the North American market are becoming rationalized, and consumer demand is expected to gradually recover during the interest rate cut cycle, which will drive the recovery of the black appliance industry [11]. - European Market Competition: Price competition in the European market is expected to slow down in 2026, benefiting the profit margins of leading Chinese black appliance companies [12]. - Clean Appliance Industry: The competitive landscape is improving, with iRobot's potential bankruptcy benefiting companies like Shark, UFI, and others in the mid-to-low-end product segments. Innovations in products like floor washing robots present investment opportunities [3][14]. - Investment Strategies for Export Chain Small Appliances: Focus on companies with low valuations and high earnings elasticity, such as Xinbao, Ousheng Electric, and Dechang, which are expected to recover in 2026 as tariffs ease and U.S. interest rates decline [18][22]. Company-Specific Insights - Xinbao: The company is expected to benefit from tariff easing and has a low valuation of about 10 times next year's earnings. It is recommended to focus on Xinbao as order recovery is anticipated in the second quarter of 2026 [19]. - Ousheng Electric: The company is rapidly ramping up production in Vietnam and Malaysia, with a focus on smart care robots, which could become a significant growth driver. The expected valuation for next year is around 16 times earnings [21]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, highlighting the home appliance industry's outlook, competitive dynamics, and specific company strategies and forecasts.