大摩闭门会：：2026年展望，我们与市场有何不同 _AI 纪要

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - China's Economic Outlook: Morgan Stanley projects China's nominal GDP growth rate for 2026 to be around 4%, lower than market expectations, citing ongoing deflationary pressures and a declining real estate market, although infrastructure investment and consumption stimulus policies may alleviate some economic stress [1][3][22]. - US Stock Market Outlook: Morgan Stanley maintains an optimistic view on the US stock market for 2026, driven not by large-cap tech stocks but by tax benefits from the "Big and Beautiful" act and increased corporate capital expenditures, alongside the application of artificial intelligence in businesses [1][4][9][19]. Key Insights on Specific Sectors - Automotive Industry: The Chinese automotive market is expected to see a decline in passenger car sales by 6-8% in 2026 due to the phasing out of purchase tax incentives. However, high-quality innovation competition is anticipated to replace price wars, with Chinese brands expected to double their global market share [1][25][26]. - Real Estate Market: The real estate sector in China is projected to continue facing downward pressure, with potential support measures including accelerated local and central debt issuance to bolster infrastructure [6][24]. - AI Investment: There is a debate on whether AI investments have entered a bubble phase. Morgan Stanley believes that while AI narratives have driven large-cap tech stocks, the optimism for the US stock market is based on fiscal policies and AI applications rather than a continuation of a tech stock bull market [4][19]. Financial Projections - US Federal Reserve Interest Rates: The expectation is for three rate cuts in 2026, but delays or reductions in the scale of these cuts could tighten credit markets, impacting corporate credit [11][19]. - Corporate Earnings: US corporate earnings are expected to grow by 17% in 2026, surpassing the market consensus of 14%, driven by fiscal benefits from the "Big and Beautiful" act and AI applications [12][13]. Market Dynamics - Foreign Investment in China: There is an expectation for foreign capital to gradually increase its allocation to Chinese stocks, with continued inflows into the Hong Kong market providing liquidity support [18]. - Valuation Changes: China's market valuation has shifted from a value trap to a growth-oriented level, with improvements in US-China relations and breakthroughs in technology likely to further enhance valuations [1][15][20]. Challenges and Opportunities - Investment Downturn: The Chinese economy faces significant investment downturn pressures, including manufacturing deflation and tight financing for infrastructure, with a cautious outlook on the effectiveness of anti-involution policies [22][23]. - Emerging Trends in Robotics: The humanoid robot market is expected to see demand between 15,000 to 20,000 units in 2026, with a focus on industrial and service sector applications for other types of intelligent robots, which may present better growth opportunities than humanoid robots [30][31][32][35]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment from Morgan Stanley indicates a cautious yet strategic approach to investment in both the Chinese and US markets, with a focus on innovation, fiscal policies, and the evolving landscape of technology and consumer behavior.