大摩闭门会：：2026年展望，我们与市场有何不同

Summary of Conference Call Company/Industry Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the macroeconomic outlook for China and the global market, with a focus on investment strategies for 2026 and 2027. It involves insights from Morgan Stanley's macro strategy team and industry analysts. Core Points and Arguments 1. Economic Outlook for 2026 and 2027 The team anticipates that 2026 will be a challenging year for China as it continues to navigate deflationary pressures, with a more optimistic outlook expected in 2027. The consensus is that the economy will still be in a transition phase in 2026, with gradual improvements expected in 2027 [5][7][14]. 2. Investment Sentiment and Market Divergence There is a notable divergence in market sentiment regarding investment strategies for 2026. Some investors are optimistic about a bull market similar to the one seen since September 2024, while others are cautious, preferring safer assets like bonds [6][10]. 3. GDP Growth Projections The projected nominal GDP growth for 2026 is slightly above 4%, indicating that the economy will still be experiencing deflationary conditions. This is more conservative than market expectations [7][14]. 4. External and Internal Demand Concerns The outlook for external demand is relatively stable, particularly due to the U.S. market's growth driven by the Inflation Reduction Act and AI investments. However, internal demand, especially in real estate and traditional consumption, remains a concern [9][10]. 5. Real Estate Policy Expectations The call discusses potential stimulus measures for the real estate sector, including the issuance of local and central government bonds to support infrastructure projects. There is speculation about mortgage interest subsidies to support the housing market [10][11][12]. 6. Consumer Spending and Fiscal Policy The team expects continued fiscal support for consumer spending, particularly in sectors like home appliances and automobiles. However, significant expansion into service sector support may not occur until the second half of the year [12][14]. 7. Market Valuation and Investment Opportunities The valuation of the Minsheng China Index has increased from a P/E ratio of 9 to around 13, which is seen as sustainable. The team believes that while there are challenges, the market has transitioned from a value trap to a growth-oriented valuation [28][29]. 8. U.S. Market Dynamics The U.S. market is expected to see a broad-based recovery, not solely driven by large-cap tech stocks. The anticipated impact of the Inflation Reduction Act and AI applications across various sectors is expected to support overall market growth [19][20][24]. 9. Risks and Monitoring Indicators The team emphasizes the importance of monitoring specific indicators, such as corporate earnings expectations and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, to adjust their investment strategies accordingly [22][24]. 10. Sector-Specific Insights The automotive industry is highlighted as a sector undergoing transformation, with ongoing discussions about the impact of policy changes and competition on investment dynamics [64][65]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The call highlights the importance of understanding the underlying economic data discrepancies, such as the divergence between fixed asset investment and GDP growth, which may indicate underlying economic pressures [42][44]. - The discussion on the potential for a "deep tech moment" in China, similar to past technological breakthroughs, suggests that significant advancements could positively impact market sentiment and valuations [34][32]. - The cautious approach towards the "反内卷" (anti-involution) movement indicates a belief that while it may lead to long-term improvements, short-term impacts on investment demand and overall economic activity may be limited [52][54].