2026年宏观利率及12月债市展望

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The macroeconomic outlook for December 2025 indicates a weakening influence of the equity market on the bond market, with overall weak performance and reduced trading volume expected in the equity market. Seasonal factors typically lead to increased fiscal spending and loose monetary policy in December, which may result in a downward trend in interest rates [1][4][3]. Key Points and Arguments - Monetary Policy: The monetary policy is expected to maintain a supportive stance, with a high probability of interest rates declining in December due to seasonal patterns. However, the impact of upcoming important meetings on the market needs to be monitored [1][4]. - Credit Spread: The 1-5 year non-financial credit spread has returned to the 30th percentile of the past 24 years, indicating a thin safety cushion. The compression of non-financial medium to long-term credit spreads may face challenges due to year-end regulatory changes [5][3]. - Fiscal Policy for 2026: The fiscal policy is projected to maintain a certain level of spending intensity, with a deficit rate expected between 4% and 4.5%. The net financing scale of government debt may reach approximately 14.5 trillion yuan [12][10]. - Investment and Consumption Outlook: Investment and consumption are expected to recover moderately in 2026, but inflation remains an uncertain factor. The PPI decline is expected to narrow, while CPI may return to positive growth [7][16]. - Interest Rate Projections: The after-tax yield on 10-year government bonds is anticipated to fluctuate between 1.7% and 1.9%, with a median estimate between 1.75% and 1.95% [2][19]. - Investment Strategy: In a low-interest-rate environment, a focus on coupon strategies is recommended, along with opportunities for phase-based trading. The overall economic recovery is expected to be moderate, supporting a low-interest-rate environment [21][15]. Additional Important Insights - Economic Structure Transition: The current macroeconomic policy framework emphasizes structural transformation, with a focus on medium to long-term planning and industrial policy, aiming for sustainable growth while stabilizing short-term economic conditions [9][14]. - Fourth Quarter Economic Support: There is a significant amount of new funding (1 trillion yuan) allocated for the fourth quarter, which includes policy financial tools and local government debt limits, aimed at boosting economic growth [8][11]. - Inflation Risks: Inflation is identified as a key uncertainty for the bond market in 2026, with potential short-term volatility due to rising prices, although the overall macro policy aims to prevent financial system stagnation [16][20]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, focusing on the macroeconomic outlook, fiscal and monetary policies, investment strategies, and potential risks in the bond market.