2025-12-02 02:08Summary of Conference Call on China Property Market Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the China Property sector, specifically the performance of major property developers in November 2025 and the outlook for early 2026 [1][2][4]. Key Points Sales Performance - Contracted Sales Decline: Major developers recorded an average decline of 42% year-on-year (y-y) in contracted sales for November 2025, with a year-to-date (YTD) decline of 23% y-y [1][2]. - Top Developers' Performance: The top 50 and top 100 developers saw declines of 35% and 36% y-y, respectively, with YTD sales declines of 18% and 19% [2]. - Divergence in Performance: State-owned enterprises (SOEs) outperformed private-owned enterprises (POEs), with SOEs like Jinmao, CR Land, Poly, and COLI showing milder declines of 0%, -11%, -25%, and -26% y-y, while some POEs like Agile and Midea RE experienced declines exceeding 55% y-y [3]. Market Sentiment and Outlook - Weak Buyer Sentiment: The market sentiment remains weak, exacerbated by high listing volumes and lower secondary listing prices. A survey indicated that sentiment in tier-1 cities has worsened significantly [4]. - Policy Outlook: The expectation is that meaningful housing policy changes will remain muted in the coming months, with potential mortgage interest subsidies possibly rolling out in late Q2 or Q3 2026 if home price declines spread to tier-2 cities [4]. Investment Recommendations - Defensive Strategy: Analysts recommend a defensive and selective investment approach, suggesting accumulation of quality SOEs with potential alpha opportunities for 2026. Specific recommendations include CR Land (1109.HK) and C&D (1908.HK) for their attractive dividend yields, and Seazen (601155.SS) for its robust mall rental and private REIT divestment [5]. Additional Insights - Sales Data: The sales data indicates a significant contraction in the property market, with the median sales decline for SOEs at -26% and for POEs at -45% [9]. - Future Risks: Risks to the upside include stronger-than-expected contract sales and faster project launches, while downside risks involve slower sales growth and margin compression [19][20]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the China property market, highlighting the significant challenges faced by developers and the cautious investment strategies recommended by analysts.