全球 IP 潮玩-乘 “成人孩童化” 浪潮而起-Global IP Collectibles_ Riding the Kidult Wave

Summary of Global IP Collectibles Conference Call Industry Overview - The global IP collectibles market has rapidly evolved into a mainstream market exceeding US$100 billion, outpacing most consumer discretionary categories in growth [2][21] - The market is expected to maintain a strong ~6% CAGR from 2024 to 2027, following an ~8% CAGR from 2019 to 2024 [2][25] - Character- and entertainment-driven collectibles, including toys, trading cards, apparel, and lifestyle products, are gaining consumer wallet share, particularly in China and the Asia-Pacific region [2][25] Key Players - Recommended leading IP plays include Pop Mart, Sanrio, Hasbro, and Damai [2][65] - North America accounts for nearly 50% of the global character IP licensing market, making it a focal area for Asian companies [2][25] Core Insights - The rise of "kidults" (adults embracing play and nostalgia) is driving over 25% of global toy sales, expanding the total addressable market (TAM) [3][41] - Seven structural amplifiers are identified as key growth drivers: 1. Consumer cohort expansion 2. IP creation 3. Gamified sales 4. Social media evolution 5. Product upgrade 6. Channel evolution 7. IP versatility [3][30] Consumer Behavior - A survey indicates robust purchase intent in both China and the US, with young, financially stable, family-oriented consumers at the core [4][41] - Chinese consumers average 6-7 purchases per year, while US consumers show higher repurchase rates, reflecting market maturity [4][42] - Purchase drivers differ: Chinese consumers prioritize design and emotional resonance, while US consumers value gifting, nostalgia, and affordability [4][43] Market Risks - Macro risks such as economic uncertainty and price sensitivity are significant constraints, but the "lipstick effect" supports resilience in moderate downturns [4][45] - The IP collectibles category is sensitive to severe economic downturns, with historical precedents showing outsized shocks during crises [4][46][56] Growth Projections - The leading group of IP collectibles is expected to grow at ~7% in 2025, with a moderation to 5-6% in 2026-27 [25][50] - The total retail sales value under Character/Entertainment IP is estimated to reach US$150 billion in 2024 [26] Investment Opportunities - Pop Mart is positioned to capitalize on expanding kidult demand, with a focus on strategic investments and localized crossovers [65][67] - Sanrio's growth story remains intact despite short-term concerns, particularly in the US market [72][73] - Hasbro's strategic pivot towards higher-growth franchises is expected to drive a multi-year growth trajectory [74][76] Conclusion - The IP collectibles market is characterized by structural growth drivers that extend beyond cyclical trends, with leading players well-positioned to capture incremental demand [32][63] - Investors are encouraged to focus on companies with strong product design and consumer engagement strategies to capitalize on the long-term growth potential of the IP collectibles sector [64][70]