中港地产-地产企业日 19 家公司参会要点总结-China and HK Property_ Takeaways from 19 companies in Property Corporate Day

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - China Residential Market: Developers are increasingly negative due to accelerated price declines, leading to margin and earnings pressure in 2025 and 2026. BEKE anticipates a 30% YoY decline in existing home GTV in Q4 2025 and a 13% and 6% decline in existing and new home transaction GTV in 2026 respectively [2][19]. - Hong Kong Residential Market: Developers report a strong recovery in transaction volume driven by rate cuts, rising rental demand, and increased investment from mainland Chinese buyers. There is potential for gradual price increases in new project launches [3]. - Retail Sector: High-end malls in China and Hong Kong are experiencing better momentum in 2H25, attributed to positive wealth effects from stock markets and rising gold prices. However, mass market retail remains challenging due to consumption downgrades and e-commerce penetration [4]. - Office Market in Hong Kong: There are signs of recovery in the Central office market, driven by increased leasing inquiries from the financial sector and IPO-related services [5]. Company-Specific Insights - CR Land: Reported a 17% YoY decline in contract sales gross value to Rmb170bn and expects downward pressure on earnings in 2025 due to lack of one-off gains [8]. - COLI: Experienced a 21% YoY decline in contract sales gross value to Rmb189bn, with expectations of launching large projects to mitigate sales decline [9]. - Greentown China: Reported a 6% YoY decline in contract sales to Rmb120bn, with expectations of slight profit in 2025 but continued pressure from vintage inventory [10]. - Poly Developments: Focused on liquidity and destocking, with a significant portion of sales coming from vintage inventory [11]. - CR Mixc: Forecasted double-digit core net profit growth for FY2025, supported by strong same-store sales growth [15]. - Beike (KE Holdings): Expects a 30% YoY decline in GTV for existing homes in Q4 2025, but maintains a guidance of Rmb7bn adjusted operating profit for 2026 [19][20]. Market Preferences - Stock Preferences: Preference for HK developers like Henderson and Sino due to the bottoming of the HK residential market, and for retail properties like CR Mixc and Swire Properties due to recovery in mainland China retail [6]. Risks and Valuation - Valuation Methods: P/BV methods are used for mainland China property developers, while discount to NAV is used for Hong Kong developers and landlords [31]. - Key Risks: For Hong Kong, risks include weakening macroeconomic conditions and increased housing supply. For mainland China, risks involve government policies restricting demand and tight financing for developers [32]. Additional Insights - Market Sentiment: There is a cautious optimism among developers in Hong Kong regarding sales momentum and potential price increases, while mainland developers face significant challenges due to declining sales and margins [3][4][5][8][9][10][11].