美国股票策略展望-2026 前瞻 -市场情绪高涨，却无处可去-2026 Year Ahead_ All bulled up, and no place to go

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call focuses on the US Equity Strategy for the year ahead, particularly the S&P 500 and its projected performance through 2026. Core Insights and Arguments 1. S&P 500 Target for 2026: The target for the S&P 500 is set at 7100, indicating a 5% price return from current levels, supported by a forecasted 14% earnings growth or $310 per share, despite a 10-point PE contraction [1][18][19]. 2. Market Sentiment: Current market sentiment is described as contained rather than euphoric, with a recommended equity allocation of 56%, which is below historical peaks [10][31]. 3. Capex vs. Consumption: There is an expectation of broadening capital expenditures (capex) over consumption, with a shift towards blue-collar jobs as AI impacts white-collar employment [2][12][13]. 4. Sector Adjustments: The outlook for Consumer Staples has been raised to overweight from underweight, while Consumer Discretionary has been lowered to underweight from marketweight. The firm remains overweight on Financials, Real Estate, Materials, Health Care, and Energy [6][12]. 5. AI Investment Outlook: There is caution regarding AI investments, with a noted air pocket ahead as monetization remains uncertain. The capital intensity of hyperscalers has increased significantly, raising concerns about future returns [3][14][15]. 6. Credit Cycle Concerns: The credit cycle is anticipated to be different from previous cycles, with emerging issues in private lending and a potential increase in bad vintage private investments due in 2026 [4][16]. 7. Earnings Growth and Valuation: Earnings growth is expected to be in the mid-double digits, but multiples are projected to compress by 5-10%. The fair value model estimates the S&P 500's fair value at 5900, indicating a potential downside from current levels [10][21][22]. Additional Important Insights 1. Liquidity Trends: While liquidity has been strong, the direction is expected to worsen, with less emphasis on buybacks and more on capex [11][13]. 2. Job Market Dynamics: The job market is shifting, with a decrease in entry-level office jobs due to efficiency gains from AI, impacting consumption growth [12][13]. 3. Valuation Metrics: The S&P 500 is statistically expensive across multiple metrics, trading above historical averages, which raises concerns about future returns [55][56]. 4. Investor Behavior: Individual investors have significantly influenced market volumes, accounting for approximately 40% of small-cap and 20% of large-cap volumes this year [13]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the expected performance of the S&P 500, sector adjustments, and broader market dynamics.