铀：关注战略稀缺资源的投资机会

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The uranium industry is characterized by a high dependence on foreign supply, with China's reliance projected to reach 87% by 2024, highlighting the need for domestic production expansion [1][3] - The global supply-demand gap for natural uranium is expected to widen due to increasing demand and limited supply growth from major producing countries like Kazakhstan, Australia, and Canada [2][8] Company Insights - China Uranium Corporation has plans for resource expansion and production increase, including the Nalin Gully in-situ leaching project, which is expected to double domestic uranium output to approximately 3,800 tons by 2027 or 2028 [1][4] - The company operates under a high-margin model, supplying natural uranium to the China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) at market prices, benefiting from the operational efficiencies of in-situ leaching methods [1][7] Financial Metrics - The current domestic price for natural uranium is around 1 million RMB per ton, with net profits per ton ranging from 70,000 to 100,000 RMB, indicating a favorable cost structure compared to imported sources [5][6] Global Supply Dynamics - Kazakhstan accounts for about 40% of global uranium supply but has reduced production plans due to sulfuric acid shortages, while Australia and Canada face ESG-related constraints on production expansion [8] - The expected annual increase in global uranium supply is limited to 3,000 to 5,000 tons, with secondary supply sources like inventory releases also declining [8] Demand Projections - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a 2.8% increase in global nuclear power generation by 2026, which will drive up uranium demand and exacerbate the need for nuclear power plant material inventories [10][11] - The correlation between nuclear power generation and uranium inventory levels suggests that increased generation will lead to significantly higher inventory requirements [11] Inventory Analysis - Global uranium inventory is categorized into three types: nuclear power plant material reserves, supplier inventories, and speculative inventories, each influenced by different market dynamics [9][11] - The frequency of inventory data reporting is low, complicating the tracking of changes in supply levels [9] Investment Opportunities - Companies with price elasticity and production growth potential, particularly those listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and those soon to be listed on the A-share market, are highlighted as attractive investment opportunities [2][12]