钴板块：刚果金出口不畅，钴价或迎来新一轮起点

Summary of Cobalt Sector Conference Call Industry Overview - The cobalt sector is significantly impacted by the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which accounts for 75% of global cobalt supply. In 2025, DRC's cobalt export quota is drastically reduced to 96,600 tons, a decrease of approximately 120,000 tons compared to 2024 production levels, with 10% designated as strategic quotas [1][3]. Key Points and Arguments - Cobalt Price Fluctuations: In 2025, cobalt prices experienced three notable increases, rising from 160,000 CNY to 400,000 CNY due to DRC's export ban and quota policies. The price surged from 300,000 CNY to 400,000 CNY following the announcement of export quotas [1][4]. - Supply and Demand Dynamics: Global cobalt demand is primarily driven by the battery industry, with an estimated demand of 200,000 to 220,000 tons in 2025. The production of ternary and lithium cobalt oxide materials is showing high growth, with November production increasing nearly 40% year-on-year [1][6]. - Chinese Inventory Trends: China's cobalt inventory has been declining, with a reduction of 8,000 tons in the first ten months of the year, leaving approximately 56,000 tons in stock. If no new shipments arrive by the end of April 2026, domestic inventory may be depleted, leading to panic buying [1][7]. - Impact of Indonesian MHP Project: The Indonesian MHP project, which typically adds about 3,000 tons monthly, is halted until March 2026 due to tailings issues, further constraining supply. Additionally, Glencore's remaining 10,000 tons of intermediate products will be sold out in the near term, intensifying supply pressure [1][8]. - Future Price Predictions: If DRC export licenses are delayed until after Christmas, domestic inventory could be rapidly consumed, potentially triggering a new price surge in December. Current electrolytic cobalt prices are around 400,000 CNY, with further increases possible under these conditions [1][9]. Additional Important Insights - Electrolytic Cobalt Market: Electrolytic cobalt constitutes only about 10% of total cobalt consumption, with annual consumption between 10,000 to 20,000 tons. Recent months have seen raw material prices exceed electrolytic cobalt prices, leading to reduced production [1][10]. - Stock and Price Dynamics: Despite rising commodity prices, inventory levels at Zhonglian Gold have not increased, indicating that available inventory is concentrated there. Some cobalt refining and processing companies are expected to gradually stockpile metallic cobalt as a raw material reserve [1][11]. - Potential Extreme Scenarios: If raw material supply disruptions occur mid-2026, the entire supply chain could face significant challenges, granting pricing power to companies with raw material reserves. This scenario necessitates close monitoring of DRC's export progress [1][12]. Recommended Companies - Companies with Indonesian MHP capacity reserves, such as Huayou Cobalt, Likin Resources, and Greeenmei, are recommended for their advantages in handling potential extreme market conditions. Additionally, companies with smelting and processing capabilities, like Tengyuan Cobalt and Hanrui Cobalt, are also positioned to benefit from rising prices [2][13]. Future Outlook for Huayou Cobalt - Huayou Cobalt is well-positioned not only to navigate potential extreme market conditions but also to capitalize on its lithium carbonate business, with projected production of 60,000 to 80,000 tons in 2026. The company maintains a cost control of under 60,000 CNY per ton for lithium carbonate, making it a strong candidate for performance in a rising market [2][14].