2025-12-03 02:16Summary of Meituan's Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Meituan (3690.HK) - Industry: E-commerce and Food Delivery Key Points and Arguments Competitive Landscape and Unit Economics - Meituan is confident in achieving long-term EBIT of Rmb1 per order by maintaining a unit economics advantage over peers, driven by: 1. Higher commission revenue per order from increased Average Order Value (AOV) 2. Lower subsidy rates due to a higher-quality user mix 3. Reduced delivery costs per order from greater order density and improved algorithms - The rider cost advantage has narrowed due to increased competition and volume growth during the subsidy war [5][6] Order Volume Growth Projections - Goldman Sachs forecasts a 10% growth in order volume for Q4 2025 and 6% for FY 2026, anticipating a gradual reduction in subsidies post-Singles Day festival [5][6] Instashopping Growth Outlook - Instashopping maintains leading market share in order volume and Gross Transaction Value (GTV), with a projected order volume growth of 31% for Q4 2025, despite a sequentially larger operating loss of -Rmb1.6 billion due to investments for user experience enhancement [5][6] In-store Competition and Margin Trajectory - The in-store segment faces evolving competition, leading to a decline in EBIT margins due to slower liquor demand and reduced spending from fast food chains [6] - Long-term EBIT margin for the in-store, hotel, and travel (IHT) segment is expected to stabilize at 30-35% [6] Overseas Expansion and New Initiatives - Meituan plans to prioritize resource allocation for overseas expansion in Kuwait, UAE, and Brazil, while maintaining investment levels for new initiatives in FY 2026 [6] - Forecasted losses for Keeta's expansion are projected at -Rmb3.9 billion for Q4 2025 and -Rmb8.0 billion for FY 2026 [6] Price Target and Investment Rating - Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating on Meituan with a 12-month price target of HK$120, indicating a potential upside of 20.5% from the current price of HK$99.55 [12][15] Important but Overlooked Content - Key downside risks include: - Increased competition affecting growth and profit turnaround - Labor cost inflation and operational efficiencies - Food safety concerns and stricter regulations - Higher-than-expected investments in Keeta [8][14] Financial Projections - Group revenue is projected to grow from Rmb337.6 billion in 2023 to Rmb408.1 billion in 2026, with an expected adjusted EBIT margin recovery over the next few years [11][15] Conclusion - Meituan is positioned to leverage its competitive advantages in the food delivery and e-commerce sectors, with a focus on maintaining unit economics and expanding into new markets while managing risks associated with competition and operational costs.