房地产2026年展望：“止跌回稳”，徐徐图之

Summary of Real Estate Market Outlook and Key Insights Industry Overview - The real estate market is currently in a phase of stabilizing after a decline, with the second-hand housing market showing early signs of recovery, while the new housing market is recovering slowly due to developers' debt issues [1][2][3] - The market has experienced four rounds of policy stimulus, which have had short-term effects but have not fundamentally changed the weak transaction volume trend [1][3] Core Insights - Since June 2021, the comparable prices of second-hand homes have been on a downward trend, with a cumulative adjustment of 35% [1][3] - It is projected that in 2026, the sales area of second-hand homes will decline by approximately 3% year-on-year, while the sales area of new homes will see a smaller decline [1][3] - Real estate development investment is expected to be around 7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 15% [1][3] - The pressure on the market remains, with various indicators likely to continue declining, although at a slower rate [1][3] Factors Influencing the Market - The upward cycle of the real estate market depends on four key factors: demand, payment capacity, leverage space, and supply [2][9] - Current challenges include slowing population growth, limited urbanization potential, high housing price-to-income ratios, and significant corporate debt pressure [2][8][9] - The need for policy determination to address corporate debt and asset matching issues is emphasized [2][9] Strategies for Stimulating Demand and Improving Payment Capacity - To stimulate housing demand, strategies such as urban renewal, village renovations, relaxing purchase qualifications, and providing birth subsidies are suggested [10] - Improving payment capacity requires increasing income, reducing tax burdens, stabilizing the economy, ensuring employment, and lowering mortgage rates and transaction taxes [10] Addressing Inventory Issues - The real estate inventory problem is a significant concern, necessitating a reduction in housing supply, expediting the implementation of existing projects, and minimizing the supply of guaranteed housing [12] Future Market Outlook - The cyclical nature of the real estate market suggests that confidence and patience are needed while waiting for policy effects to manifest [13] - The market's future trajectory will be closely linked to monetary factors, as historical data indicates a strong correlation between asset prices and money supply [1][3]