水泥——大宗商品热点解读

Summary of Cement Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The cement industry is experiencing significant price fluctuations, with the national average price for cement in the first three quarters of 2025 at 320 RMB/ton, a decrease of 48 RMB/ton from the beginning of the year, primarily due to a substantial decline in real estate investment and a slowdown in infrastructure investment [1][3][5]. Key Insights - Regional Performance: The Northeast cement market showed relative stability with a smaller decline compared to the national average, while regions such as Northwest, East China, Central China, Southwest, and North China experienced significant decreases [1][4]. - Profit Growth: Despite challenges, nearly all cement companies reported year-on-year profit growth in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a notable improvement in industry profitability and a positive outlook for future development [1][6]. - Supply Adjustments: Increased staggered production stoppages were noted, with Guangdong experiencing an increase of 15 days and certain areas in Xinjiang halting production for up to 228 days, reducing reliance on imported cement [1][7]. - Demand Challenges: As of October 2025, real estate development investment fell by 14.7% year-on-year, leading to a slowdown in domestic cement demand and exacerbating supply-demand imbalances [1][8]. Additional Important Points - Export Growth: To mitigate excess domestic capacity, companies are increasingly focusing on overseas markets, with cement exports rising by 1.2924 million tons year-on-year, totaling 5.0378 million tons by October 2025 [1][9]. - Cost Structure: The cost of cement production is primarily driven by coal (35% of costs) and electricity (27% of costs). Although coal prices have decreased recently, the overall production costs remain high due to previous price levels [3]. - Future Outlook: Anticipated demand for cement is expected to increase by 20%-30% in December 2025 due to a surge in infrastructure project completions. However, the average price is projected to fluctuate between 322-326 RMB/ton due to low clinker capacity utilization throughout the year [1][10]. - Seasonal Variations: The fourth quarter is expected to show regional differences, with the North entering a seasonal slowdown and the South experiencing increased demand due to project deadlines, leading to an overall decline in national production [2][10].