2026年外汇市场展望：宽松交易或阶段性回归

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the foreign exchange market outlook for 2026, highlighting the expected return of loose trading conditions and the potential weakening of the US dollar in the first half of 2026, with the dollar index projected to fall to the 90-94 range [2][13]. Core Insights and Arguments - 2025 Market Dynamics: The US dollar weakened in the first half of 2025 due to tariff uncertainties and fluctuating employment data, leading to a de-dollarization trend. However, by the second half, the dollar rebounded as tariff issues were resolved and the Federal Reserve's rate cuts were fully priced in, resulting in a low volatility environment [3][4]. - Carry Trade Strategy: In the current low volatility environment, the primary trading strategy is the carry trade, where investors sell low-yield currencies and buy high-yield currencies. Latin American currencies, such as the Brazilian real and Mexican peso, performed well due to high interest rates [4][5]. - Factors Influencing 2026 Volatility: Key factors that may affect volatility in 2026 include changes in US policy expectations, deteriorating employment data, signs of economic recession indicated by PMI indices, and the stance of the new Federal Reserve chairman on interest rates [6][7]. - Federal Reserve's Potential Actions: The Federal Reserve may adjust interest rates in response to economic conditions, with a potential for further rate cuts if employment continues to decline. Current forward implied rates suggest a 50-75 basis point reduction is possible [7][8]. - Global Interest Rate Disparities: There is a significant difference in the future rate cut potential between the US and other central banks, with the US having more room to cut rates compared to the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. This could narrow interest rate differentials and encourage foreign investment in US assets without significantly increasing the dollar's value [8]. Other Important Considerations - Upcoming Risks: Notable risks include the potential for a US government shutdown, which could tighten liquidity, and ongoing tariff issues that may create market volatility. The possibility of the Supreme Court ruling on current tariffs could lead to renegotiations of trade agreements [10][11]. - Impact of Technology and AI: The rise of AI technology may enhance productivity but could also lead to demand shrinkage, creating imbalances in the global economy and potentially causing significant fluctuations in financial markets, including the forex market [9]. - Chinese Yuan Outlook: The Chinese yuan is expected to appreciate gradually in 2025, supported by stable US-China trade relations and a weak dollar environment. The yuan may fall below 7 against the dollar in the first half of 2026 [14][15]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the foreign exchange market's dynamics, strategies, and potential risks moving forward.