2026年度策略系列电话会 - 宏观：短期答案在长期

Summary of Conference Call on 2026 Strategy Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the macroeconomic outlook for China in 2026, emphasizing the stability of the economic fundamentals with limited fluctuations and a low probability of policy stimulus. The real estate market, particularly housing prices, is identified as a key macro variable [1][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - Economic Stability: The Chinese economy is expected to remain stable in 2026, with limited volatility unless strong policy stimulus occurs, which is deemed unlikely [3]. - Real Estate Market: The real estate sector may see a turning point, with investment growth potentially converging to around 7% in 2026, down from a 15% decline in 2025. However, risks related to construction intensity and housing price adjustments are highlighted [9][10]. - Capital Expenditure: There is a declining willingness for corporate capital expenditure, leading to increased liquidity in the A-share market. The consensus is forming around a slow bull market for A-shares due to ample liquidity and risk appetite [14][15]. - Asset Allocation Recommendations: It is advised to increase allocation to assets with low correlation to the domestic economy but high correlation to the overseas economy. Key sectors to focus on include technology growth, industrial chain restructuring, and sectors related to global economic recovery, such as chemicals [6][26]. Additional Important Points - Structural and Cyclical Issues: The Chinese economy faces both structural and cyclical challenges, with the disappearance of the demographic dividend being a fundamental issue. Structural adjustments are necessary rather than relying on strong stimulus [7]. - Manufacturing Investment Challenges: Manufacturing investment is currently facing challenges due to factors like overseas expansion and anti-competitive pressures, leading to a significant decline in capital expenditure since 2024 [11]. - Inventory Cycle: The inventory cycle has returned to bottom levels since mid-2023, with expectations of a rebound in 2026 as supply-demand dynamics shift [12]. - Inflation Trends: The impact of anti-competitive measures on PPI is significant, with expectations of a slight recovery in PPI by the end of 2026 due to external demand pressures [13]. - Real Estate Valuation Risks: The real estate market is facing high valuation risks, with mortgage loan-to-value (LTV) ratios indicating potential vulnerabilities as housing prices decline [21][22]. Conclusion - The macroeconomic outlook for 2026 suggests a cautious but stable environment, with specific focus areas for investment opportunities in technology, industrial restructuring, and sectors benefiting from global demand. The real estate market's dynamics will be crucial in shaping the overall economic landscape.