中国金融：公募基金仍有广阔增长空间-China Financials-Mutual Funds Long Runway Still Ahead

Summary of the Conference Call on China's Mutual Fund Industry Industry Overview - The mutual fund industry in China is expected to experience a recovery, with fee income projected to return to double-digit growth starting in 2027, driven by a more rational fee structure and the ongoing need for households to accumulate financial wealth [1][3][89]. Key Points Industry Fee Structure - The mutual fund industry's fee structure has improved following a painful transition period, with a significant reduction in volume-based revenue from over 70% in 2021 to 35% in 2024. This shift is attributed to reforms aimed at better aligning the interests of wealth managers, fund managers, and investors [2][10]. - The total industry revenue shrank by 28% from 2021 to 2024, reaching Rmb282 billion in 2024, down from nearly Rmb400 billion in 2021. However, a 3% growth in the fee pool is anticipated for 2025 [2][11]. Growth Potential - Household financial assets in China are projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.6% through 2030, indicating ample long-term growth potential for the mutual fund industry. This growth is driven by the need for Chinese households to accumulate financial wealth, as their per capita household financial assets are significantly lower than those in the US [3][13][92]. - The mutual fund industry is expected to stabilize in 2025 and 2026 before returning to 10% growth in 2027 and 2028, with AUM growth projected at 10-11% during this period [3][15]. Wealth Managers and Fund Managers - Wealth managers are expected to play a crucial role in asset allocation advice, particularly due to the absence of a large-scale corporate pension system in China. Their share of fees is anticipated to stabilize following fee rate cuts, with a long-term transition to a fee-based advisory model seen as beneficial [4][16][17]. - Fund managers are expected to shift strategies, with active equity funds regaining market share as risk appetite increases. The allocation to Hong Kong stocks is also expected to rise [4][20]. Regulatory Environment - The Chinese regulatory environment is undergoing significant changes, with a comprehensive fee reform initiated by the CSRC aimed at lowering costs for investors and aligning interests among market participants. This includes capping management fees and trading commissions [72][73][74]. - The final phase of fee cuts is expected to take place in 2026, which may impact the overall fee pool but is anticipated to be manageable due to the reduced reliance on transaction volume-based fees by wealth managers [79][88]. Market Dynamics - The mutual fund industry has seen a shift towards fixed income and passive investments, with active equity funds facing challenges. However, there is still potential for active managers to generate alpha, which could drive demand for active funds as market conditions improve [69][100]. - The proportion of equities in household financial assets has decreased but is expected to rebound, which will enhance fee opportunities for asset managers and wealth managers alike [99][100]. Additional Insights - The mutual fund industry is characterized by a large retail investor base, with nearly 800 million retail investors participating. This accessibility is a key advantage for mutual funds in capturing market share [18]. - The transition to a more client-centric approach among wealth managers is crucial for improving service quality and aligning interests with investors [4][17]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the mutual fund industry in China, highlighting the ongoing transformations and future growth potential.