2025-12-04 02:22ASMPT (0522.HK) Investor Meetings Takeaways Industry and Company Overview - Company: ASMPT - Industry: Semiconductor Equipment and Advanced Packaging Key Points and Arguments 1. Positive Outlook for 2026 - ASMPT maintains its guidance for 4Q25 with expected revenue between US$470-530 million (HK$3.7-4.1 billion) and anticipates a slight quarter-over-quarter increase in bookings. The company believes the worst is likely over for mainstream semiconductor (SEMI) and surface mount technology (SMT) sectors, setting the stage for a solid recovery in 2026 [2][5] 2. Growth Drivers for 2026 - The recovery in 2026 is expected to be driven primarily by advanced packaging (AP), with high bandwidth memory (HBM) demand outpacing chip-to-substrate (C2S) and chip-to-wafer (C2W) technologies. The demand for TCB (Thermal Compression Bonding) is tracking stronger than previously expected, which may lead to an update in the total addressable market (TAM) forecast in early 2026 [1][2][3] 3. TCB Market Position - ASMPT is positioned as a leader in TCB technology, being the first vendor to secure orders for HBM4 and the sole supplier for C2S at a leading foundry. The company has also adopted a fluxless ultrafine pitch TCB solution for C2W, indicating strong competitive advantages in technology and customer relationships [4][5] 4. Traditional Business Stabilization - The traditional SEMI and SMT businesses are stabilizing, supported by global AI applications and a recovery in demand from China. This stabilization is expected to contribute positively to ASMPT's performance in 2026 [5] 5. Financial Projections - ASMPT's revenue is projected to grow year-over-year in 2026, with gross profit margins expected to remain stable at approximately 40%. The company targets a 35-40% market share in the TCB segment, supported by its technology leadership and established customer base [2][3] 6. Risks to Consider - Potential downside risks include a slowdown in AI infrastructure investments, loss of TCB market share at key customers, reduced demand due to alternative technologies, intensifying industry competition, and possible export restrictions affecting back-end equipment [15] 7. Valuation and Investment Recommendation - The target price for ASMPT is set at HK$100, based on an up-cycle valuation of 28x 2026 P/E. The expected total return is 32.0%, factoring in a 29.3% share price return and a 2.7% dividend yield [6][14] Additional Important Information - The company is actively involved in AI-driven advanced packaging order wins, which are expected to significantly contribute to revenue growth. The recovery of mainstream SEMI and SMT is still in its early stages, indicating further potential for growth [14]