2025-12-04 02:22Summary of Pop Mart International Limited Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Pop Mart International Limited - Ticker: 9992.HK - Rating: Underperform - Price Target: 225.00 HKD - Market Cap: 293,836 million HKD - Annual Dividend Yield: 0.4% Key Industry Insights - Customer Base: Approximately 59 million reported members, with divided investor perspectives on sustainability - Survey Sample: ~850 respondents across China to analyze purchasing behavior and engagement Core Findings 1. Customer Engagement: - The customer base shows shallow engagement, with 39% of respondents starting purchases within the past year and only 12% having purchased for over two years, indicating minimal sustainable collector development [1][15][16] 2. Buyer Segmentation: - Casual and impulse buyers represent 68% of the customer base, while collectors account for only ~6% [2][18] - 60% of respondents own fewer than 5 items, and 80% own under 11 items, confirming that Pop Mart functions as occasional discretionary spending rather than routine purchases [2][18] 3. Acquisition and Portfolio Risk: - LABUBU drives 38% of customer acquisition, indicating a heavy reliance on a single character, which poses a risk if its popularity declines [3][19][78] - 29% of respondents never purchased other IPs, suggesting vulnerability to abandonment if LABUBU's appeal wanes [3][19] 4. Spending Intentions: - 61% of respondents expect to increase spending, but 26% plan to decrease, with 13% intending to stop purchasing entirely within 12 months [11][23][100] - Growth expectations are modest, with 47% projecting a 10-20% increase, indicating reliance on Pop Mart's execution of new releases [11][23][100] 5. Scarcity Strategy: - 18% abandon purchases when items are unavailable, while 45% substitute within the ecosystem, indicating a reliance on cross-IP substitution rather than developing multi-IP preferences [12][24][118] - The blind box format retains 65% positive sentiment, but many find it "fun but frustrating," suggesting a need for improvement in customer experience [12][24] Financial Metrics - Reported EPS: - F24A: 2.36 RMB - F25E: 7.91 RMB - F26E: 10.21 RMB - EPS Growth: - F24A: 191.4% - F25E: 235.1% - F26E: 29.1% [8] Purchase Behavior Insights 1. Purchase Frequency: - 21% of respondents have made only a single purchase, indicating low habitual purchasing [56][58] - Only 16.55% purchase monthly or more frequently, suggesting limited engagement [56][58] 2. Annual Spending: - 68.80% of customers spend less than ¥500 annually, translating to around 6-7 items yearly [61][65] - This aligns with low ownership levels and infrequent purchases, indicating shallow customer engagement [61][65] 3. Influence of Channels: - In-store browsing (64.18%) and social media content (54.96%) are the top drivers for purchasing decisions, highlighting the importance of product discovery [68][71] Future Considerations - Churn Risk: The data suggests Pop Mart operates with a "leaky bucket," requiring continuous new customer acquisition to offset attrition [100][101] - Product Development: Success hinges on the ability to innovate and maintain a strong IP pipeline to drive customer engagement and spending [106][107] Conclusion - Pop Mart's current customer base is characterized by shallow engagement and a heavy reliance on a single IP, LABUBU. The company faces significant challenges in converting casual buyers into committed collectors and must focus on product innovation and customer retention strategies to ensure sustainable growth.