2026年宏观与政策展望—万里豁晴川（PPT）

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the macroeconomic outlook for 2026, focusing on the implications of U.S.-China relations, domestic consumption, and the modernization of the industrial system in China. Core Insights and Arguments U.S.-China Relations - U.S.-China relations are expected to maintain a phase of "controlled conflict" in 2026, with potential for multiple high-level meetings throughout the year, which may lead to a muted market reaction [5][7][8] - The U.S. midterm elections in November 2026 will significantly influence Trump's foreign policy focus, with potential disturbances in the first and fourth quarters of 2026, while the second and third quarters may see a calmer external environment [7][8] Economic and Policy Outlook - The macroeconomic outlook for 2026 anticipates a stable economic growth rate, with a focus on expanding service consumption and effective investment strategies [59][61] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need to maintain a reasonable proportion of manufacturing in GDP, as the share has been declining over the past two decades [27][30] - The modernization of the industrial system is aimed at enhancing investment in emerging industries, with a notable increase in the share of advanced manufacturing sectors by 2024 [62][67] Domestic Consumption - The report highlights the low consumer spending rate in China compared to other countries, indicating significant potential for growth in service consumption [60][72] - Policies are expected to shift from focusing on supply-side measures to emphasizing demand-side strategies, particularly in boosting household consumption rates [61][70] Investment Trends - There is a notable increase in overseas revenue for Chinese companies, with a growth rate of 11.24% in the first half of 2025, significantly outpacing overall revenue growth [23] - The report suggests that the trend of Chinese companies expanding internationally is a strategic response to rising global trade protectionism [23] Currency and Financial Markets - The internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) is projected to accelerate, driven by increased cross-border trade and financing activities [24][25] - The RMB has become the third-largest payment currency globally, with significant growth in its use for international transactions [25] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The report discusses the implications of the U.S. Supreme Court's decisions on tariffs, which could reshape negotiation dynamics between the U.S. and other countries [14] - The "destructive reconstruction" of global order under Trump's administration is expected to lead to significant shifts in international relations and economic policies [15][19] - The need for a balanced approach in domestic policies, including social security reforms and income distribution adjustments, is emphasized as crucial for enhancing consumer confidence and spending [68][70] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing insights into the macroeconomic landscape, U.S.-China relations, and the strategic direction for Chinese industries and consumption patterns.