A股市场2026年投资策略—角逐定价权，迈入低波市

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The A-share market is transitioning from domestic-focused companies to global multinational corporations, indicating a shift from an emerging market to a mature market. This transformation is expected to enhance pricing power for Chinese companies in the global value chain during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [4][5][6]. Core Insights 1. Global Exposure of A-Share Companies: - The overseas business exposure of A-share companies has significantly increased, with the share of overseas revenue for the top 30 manufacturing companies rising from 7% in 2005 to 45% in 2025H1. This high exposure contributes 39% of profits and 35% of market capitalization for the entire A-share non-financial sector [5][19][20]. - The correlation between A-share companies' performance and domestic economic indicators is decreasing, indicating a shift towards global economic cycles [5][23]. 2. Impact of US-China Relations: - The dynamics of US-China relations are crucial for market trends, with two key events in 2026 (the signing of a trade agreement and the US midterm elections) expected to segment the market into three phases: pre-agreement, post-agreement to midterm elections, and post-midterm elections [6][35]. 3. Market Liquidity and Investment Trends: - The influx of capital is primarily from absolute return-focused funds, leading to a long-term decline in market volatility. Traditional subjective long-only funds are seeing limited net inflows compared to tool-based products [7][9][11]. - The shift towards tool-based investment products, such as thematic ETFs, is evident, with significant net inflows into these products compared to broad-based ETFs [9][20]. Industry Configuration 1. Manufacturing Sector Upgrades: - The traditional manufacturing sector is focusing on upgrading quality and converting market share advantages into pricing power. The goal is to increase the profit share of Chinese manufacturing in the global market [12][19]. - Key sectors to watch include non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and new energy [12]. 2. Chinese Enterprises Going Global: - The trend of Chinese companies expanding overseas is expected to continue, with significant potential for profit growth in sectors like machinery, innovative pharmaceuticals, and electric equipment [13][19]. - The current overseas penetration rates for various sectors indicate that many industries are still in the early stages of international expansion [13]. 3. AI and Technology Sector: - The continuation of the technology market is dependent on new applications that broaden the commercial landscape for AI. The market is currently anxious about the sustainability of AI investments [14][19]. - Key sectors include semiconductors, computing power, and AI applications, which are expected to drive future growth [14]. 4. Consumer Sector Opportunities: - The consumer sector is currently underperforming relative to external demand, but there is potential for recovery driven by policy changes and macroeconomic shifts [14][19]. Risk Factors - Potential risks include escalating tensions in technology, trade, and finance between the US and China, domestic policy effectiveness, macroeconomic liquidity tightening, and geopolitical conflicts [14][19]. Investment Strategy for 2026 - Four key investment portfolios have been proposed for 2026: - Manufacturing Upgrade 30: Focused on traditional manufacturing leaders with significant market share advantages. - Chinese Enterprises Going Global 30: Targeting companies with strong global competitiveness. - China AI 35: Concentrating on firms in the semiconductor and AI application sectors. - New Consumption 15: Emphasizing companies with strong brands and service-oriented consumer offerings [14][19]. This comprehensive analysis highlights the evolving landscape of the A-share market, driven by global exposure, US-China relations, and sector-specific trends, while also addressing potential risks and strategic investment opportunities.