利率债2026年投资策略—步步为营（PPT）(1)

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: Fixed Income and Macroeconomic Analysis - Company: CITIC Securities Research Department Core Insights Macroeconomic Outlook - GDP Growth: Expected to achieve around 4.9% for the year, with nominal GDP growth anticipated to rise, marking the first time since 2022 that nominal GDP growth outpaces real GDP growth [4][39] - Economic Growth Pattern: Projected to exhibit a "front low, back high" pattern in 2026 due to base effects and policy timing [4][39] - Price Improvement: Price factors are expected to improve, contributing to the rise in nominal GDP [4][39] Policy Combination - Fiscal Policy: Anticipated moderate expansion with a deficit rate maintained at 4%. New special bond issuance expected to increase to around 5 trillion [4][44] - Monetary Policy: Expected to remain moderately accommodative, with liquidity conditions remaining ample and stable funding rates [4][39][48] Interest Rates - Interest Rate Trend: Expected to decline initially before rising, with the 10-year government bond yield projected to fluctuate between 1.6% and 1.9% [4][71] - Market Dynamics: The macro policy's moderate expansion and rising nominal GDP are expected to ease the asset supply and demand dynamics [4][71] Risk Factors - Economic Recovery Risks: Domestic economic recovery may exceed expectations, alongside potential financial regulatory changes and credit risk exposures [4][74] - Geopolitical Risks: Increased risks from US-China trade tensions and global geopolitical instability [4][74] Additional Important Insights Investment Strategy - Investment Approach: A step-by-step strategy is recommended, focusing on capturing opportunities in the bond market as conditions evolve [4][68] Credit and Social Financing - Credit Growth: Anticipated stabilization in credit and social financing growth, with a gradual increase expected in 2026 [4][47] - Government Debt Supply: Expected slight growth in government debt supply compared to 2025, supporting social financing [4][47] Inflation Outlook - Inflation Trends: PPI is expected to show a steady upward trend, while CPI is projected to be positive for most months in 2026 [4][35][33] Export Dynamics - Export Resilience: China's exports are expected to show resilience due to diversified trade partnerships and demand from emerging markets [4][20] Consumer Spending - Consumer Recovery: Consumer spending is expected to continue its weak recovery, supported by policy measures [4][23] Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure Growth: Infrastructure investment is projected to recover marginally in 2026, supported by fiscal policy and special bond issuance [4][26] Real Estate Market - Real Estate Trends: The real estate market is expected to continue its weak performance, with inventory levels remaining high [4][32] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the macroeconomic outlook, policy strategies, and potential risks facing the industry.