家电行业2026年度策略：夯实内销，机会更在进击海外、深挖创新

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Home Appliance Industry - The home appliance industry is expected to stabilize and rise moderately in 2026, with policy subsidies continuing to drive the market, although the intensity may weaken [1][7] - The dividend payout ratio in the home appliance sector has been increasing annually, making dividend yield noteworthy [1][4] - The components segment is projected to see significant growth in 2025, driven by cross-industry demand in vertical application areas [1][5] Market Trends and Performance - The overall performance of the home appliance industry in 2025 is anticipated to be below expectations, particularly in overseas markets, while domestic business performed well in the first half due to subsidy policies [3] - Despite a decline in domestic demand in the second half of 2025 due to subsidy tapering, the configuration of home appliances is steadily improving, nearing levels seen in the food and beverage sector [1][6] Policy Impact - Subsidy policies have a significant impact on the home appliance industry, with data typically declining after large-scale subsidies end; however, ongoing replacement demand mitigates long-term concerns [7] Overseas Business Outlook - The industrialization process in emerging markets is boosting basic consumer demand, positively affecting large appliance exports [1][8] - Companies like Midea have resumed growth in Q4, and there is optimism for overseas business in the coming year [1][8] Competitive Landscape - Leading white goods companies are reshaping the competitive landscape through channel digitization and D to C reforms, with new entrants like Xiaomi posing challenges and opportunities for long-term development [1][9] - Midea and Haier have made significant advancements in digital transformation, enhancing their global competitiveness through smart factories and supply chain resilience [1][10] Xiaomi's Market Entry - Xiaomi has rapidly grown in the smart home appliance sector, with its smart appliance revenue increasing by 78.1% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [1][11] - Despite strong growth, Xiaomi faces challenges in supply chain management and product quality compared to established competitors like Midea and Haier [1][12] Air Conditioning Market Challenges - The air conditioning market is experiencing intense competition, with pressures from high base figures in 2024 and promotional activities affecting overall industry performance [1][13] - Companies need to enhance product quality and optimize channels to capture consumer interest, although the market outlook for 2026 remains cautiously optimistic [1][13] Black Goods Market Trends - The black goods segment is primarily reliant on overseas markets, with a focus on upgrading products through Mini LED technology [1][14] - Chinese companies are gaining market share against Korean brands in the high-end segment, with TCL and Hisense showing significant growth in Mini LED TV shipments [1][14][15] Global Market Dynamics - The global market for robotic vacuum cleaners is in a rapid growth phase, with expected shipment increases of 12.1% and 10% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [2][22] - In China, the cleaning appliance market has seen significant growth due to subsidy policies, with a notable increase in online retail sales for robotic vacuums [23] Competitive Landscape in Cleaning Appliances - Leading brands in the robotic vacuum sector include Roborock, Ecovacs, and others, with Roborock surpassing iRobot in global market share [24][25] - The competitive landscape remains dynamic, with no oligopoly established yet, as companies like Roborock and Ecovacs vie for market share [24] Investment Recommendations - Companies with overseas technological consumer advantages, such as TCL Electronics, Hisense, Roborock, and Ugreen, are recommended for investment [26] - Additionally, firms with competitive advantages in niche markets and high dividend yields, like Midea Group and Haier, are highlighted as attractive investment opportunities [26]