快递行业投资机会展望

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on the Express Delivery Industry Industry Overview - The express delivery industry is experiencing a more relaxed competitive environment, with regulatory bodies actively intervening to support healthy industry development. This trend is reflected in multiple meetings held by the State Post Bureau in November, indicating a shift towards high-quality development [1][3] - The leading companies in the industry, such as Zhongtong and Yuantong, are expected to see improved profitability, with strong performance anticipated in Q4 2025, which will support valuations for 2026 [1][3] Core Insights - Profitability Improvement: From July to October, the average revenue per package has increased, with Shentong and Yunda seeing a rise of approximately 0.2 yuan, and Yuantong increasing by about 0.15 yuan. October's package profit is estimated to be over 0.04 yuan higher than Q3, leading to expectations of significantly higher profits in Q4 compared to Q3 [4][6][7] - Head Companies' Advantages: Leading companies like Zhongtong and Yuantong are growing at rates significantly above the industry average due to their superior product structure and service quality. The importance of high-quality service is increasing, enhancing the competitive edge and valuation premium of these top firms [4][8] Regulatory Impact - Regulatory changes have significantly influenced the express delivery industry. The State Post Bureau has been actively discussing and determining average industry costs to support anti-involution efforts, ensuring prices return to reasonable levels and avoiding long-term low-price competition [5][9] Future Outlook - Investment Opportunities: The express delivery industry is expected to present clear investment opportunities in 2026, particularly among segmented companies like Tongda System, Jitu, and comprehensive logistics leader Shunfeng. Jitu's strategy has shifted from aggressive expansion to stable operations, contributing positively to its performance in China [2][10] - Emerging Markets: Jitu has shown remarkable performance in Southeast Asia, with a volume increase of approximately 78% in Q3 and an overall growth rate of 65% for the first three quarters. The online penetration rate in Southeast Asia is rising, and key clients like TikTok are driving growth [10][11] - Shunfeng's Adjustments: Shunfeng's performance in Q2 and Q3 did not meet expectations, but the company is adjusting its strategy, focusing on profitability rather than scale. Improvements are expected to be reflected in the financial reports for the first half of 2026 [2][13] Conclusion - The express delivery industry is entering a new phase characterized by improved competition, profitability, and regulatory support. Leading companies are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, while emerging markets present significant growth opportunities. The overall outlook for 2026 remains positive, with expectations of enhanced profitability and valuation recovery across the sector [1][2][3][4][5][10][13]