周期起舞，涨价背后的逻辑与空间

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the construction materials, steel, and non-ferrous metals industries. The focus is on the cyclical nature of these sectors and the impact of government policies on supply and demand dynamics [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - Anti-Competition Policies: The "anti-involution" policy aims to curb vicious competition through government intervention and leading enterprises, promoting supply contraction. This has led to significant improvements in the steel industry after the elimination of substandard steel [1][2]. - Current Industry Position: Both the construction materials and steel industries are at the bottom of the cycle, with cement companies experiencing declining shipment volumes and some reporting losses. The steel sector shows slight improvement in profitability compared to last year, but remains weak due to high iron ore prices and cost pressures from coking coal [1][4]. - Housing Policy Impact: The new housing policy emphasizes quality design and materials, encouraging construction material companies to develop high-quality products to meet the growing demand for comfortable living environments in the existing housing market [1][4]. - Non-Ferrous Metals Appeal: The non-ferrous metals sector is attractive due to expectations of global economic recovery, supply chain tensions, and increased demand from the new energy industry. However, uncertainties from global economic and policy changes must be monitored [1][5]. - Investment Drivers for Non-Ferrous Metals: The rise in non-ferrous metals is driven by macro demand, supply-side vulnerabilities, and expectations of interest rate cuts. Fiscal expansions in Europe and the U.S., along with domestic manufacturing upgrades, are boosting metal demand [5][6]. Additional Important Content - Supply-Side Vulnerabilities: Despite high prices for copper and aluminum, new capacity and mining capital expenditures remain low. Existing mines face challenges such as geopolitical risks and natural disasters, limiting supply increases [6][8]. - Investment Signals: Key indicators for assessing investment opportunities in cyclical industries include PB (Price-to-Book) and ROE (Return on Equity). High PB and ROE suggest a peak in the industry cycle, while macroeconomic conditions and policy changes, such as interest rate adjustments by the Federal Reserve, significantly impact market liquidity and industry performance [9][10]. - Future Outlook for 2026: The cyclical sectors are expected to present structural investment opportunities, particularly in non-ferrous metals, as anticipated interest rate cuts may lead to increased liquidity. However, caution is advised as current valuations may not be low [17]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the construction materials, steel, and non-ferrous metals industries.