锡行业分析及展望

Industry Analysis and Outlook on Tin Key Points Industry Overview - Domestic hidden inventory of tin is continuously depleting, with an expected peak gap of approximately 15,000 tons by July 2025, indicating a tight supply situation that is unlikely to ease in the short term, thus supporting tin prices [1][2] - Myanmar's tin mines are expected to gradually resume operations starting August 2025, with production anticipated to reach around 1,500 tons by November, but the recovery pace is slow, and the supply gap will only improve by about 2,000 tons by year-end, which is insufficient for a relaxed supply state [1][3] Supply Forecast - Global tin supply is expected to become more relaxed in 2026, with Myanmar's production potentially recovering to between 26,000 tons and 32,000 tons, and Indonesia's tin ingot exports possibly reaching between 65,000 tons and 72,000 tons, while Africa also has production potential, albeit with uncertainties due to policy and investment environments [1][5][10] - The active replenishment demand in the supply chain will absorb some raw material increments, meaning that even if raw material increments reach between 16,000 tons and 30,000 tons, the actual increase in smelting output may be reduced by about 10,000 tons, potentially affecting market supply-demand balance [1][8] Policy and Market Dynamics - Indonesia's tin mining policy adjustments, including foreign exchange controls, quota regulations, and anti-smuggling measures, may lead to a gradual decline in overall supply stability as the world's second-largest tin ingot supplier, necessitating ongoing attention to long-term impacts [1][9] - The political and investment environment in Africa presents significant uncertainties for long-term supply, despite the region's potential for increased production due to low extraction costs and high grades [1][10] Demand Trends - Tin demand is primarily concentrated in consumer products such as electronic solder (40%) and packaging materials (10%), with a strong correlation to economic cycles. Emerging demand areas include electric vehicles, photovoltaics, and AI servers, but their current market share remains limited [1][13][14] - Global tin demand growth is projected to slow to around 3% in 2025, with a potential range of -1% to 1% in 2026, indicating a cautious outlook for demand in the coming years [1][18][19] Price Dynamics - The relationship between supply and prices is expected to remain constrained, with new products and applications driving higher demand elasticity. Annual supply-demand balance and mismatches will be more significant for price assessments, with macroeconomic factors playing a substantial role in pricing [1][21][22] - Seasonal price increases typically occur at year-end due to reduced supply from major producing countries during the Chinese New Year and increased pre-holiday stocking by downstream enterprises [1][23] Regional Insights - The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has experienced supply disruptions due to conflict, but major mines remain largely unaffected. The establishment of new smelting facilities by the U.S. is expected to improve local production conditions [1][27] - South American tin production is projected to be stable, with Peru, Bolivia, and Brazil producing approximately 33,000 tons, 21,000 tons, and 19,000 tons respectively in 2024, although economic and operational uncertainties may impact stability [1][30] Conclusion - The tin industry faces a complex landscape of supply constraints, policy changes, and evolving demand dynamics. Investors should remain vigilant regarding market fluctuations and potential risks associated with geopolitical factors and economic cycles.