美国策略研究：2026 年布局 “滞涨股”-US Tactical Research_ Identifying Laggards to Buy Heading into 2026

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the "Laggards" trade, where stocks that underperformed in the previous year tend to outperform in the first quarter of the following year. This trend has been observed in 14 out of 23 years since 2002, with a notable outperformance of +1.6% in Q1 2025 compared to the S&P 500 [1][4]. Core Insights - Performance of Laggards: In 2025, laggards are down 19% on an absolute basis and -36% relative to the S&P 500, which is worse than the long-term averages of -17% and -28%, respectively [9][11]. - Sector Composition: Information Technology and Industrials represent the largest shares of laggards at approximately 15% each. There has been a shift away from Healthcare (12% in 2025 vs. 20% in 2024) and an increase in Financials (12% vs. 4%) [10][12]. - Historical Context: The average first-quarter relative return of prior-year laggards has been +50 basis points compared to the S&P 500, with a hit rate of 51% for laggards outperforming in the subsequent first quarter [4][7]. Investment Opportunities - Differentiated Buys: Analysts have identified stocks with out-of-consensus Buy ratings, including FTNT, POOL, and HRL, which are expected to perform well [3]. - Free Cash Flow Stories: Companies like PINS, VNOM, and FBIN are highlighted for their expanding free cash flow margins and attractive yields [3][26]. - Growth at Reasonable Prices: Stocks such as ARES, WK, and ELF are expected to achieve over 10% sales growth from 2025 to 2027 with low Price-Earnings-Growth ratios [3][28]. - Financial Returns: Companies like ADBE, IRM, and RRX have a track record of generating financial returns exceeding their cost of capital [3][31]. - Rebounding Margins: Companies such as STZ, VERX, and WERN are expected to see a rebound in operating margins after a challenging 2025 [3]. Additional Insights - Laggard Characteristics: The current laggards exhibit low financial returns and high growth, with a notable increase in inexpensive valuations and high balance sheet leverage compared to previous years [10][14]. - Sector Performance: Laggards in Materials, Consumer Discretionary, and Healthcare have underperformed the market the most year-to-date, while those in Energy and Industrials have lagged the least [10][12]. - Analyst Ratings: A list of laggards with differentiated bullish views includes companies like WERN, WOOF, and TDOC, which have significant upside potential compared to market expectations [21]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, focusing on the performance of laggards, investment opportunities, and sector dynamics.