全球资产配置-2026 年房产展望-不经历风雨，怎见彩虹-Global Asset Allocation House Views for 2026 No pAIn No gAIn

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Global Economic Outlook for 2026: Economists predict a "Goldilocks" environment with global growth at 2.7%, benign inflation, and narrowing rate cuts, which is bullish for risk assets [2][8] - US Equities Bubble: The US equity market is considered to be in a bubble, but initial profitability is expected. The focus remains on equities, particularly in the US and China, despite potential risks from midterm elections [2][9] Company Insights - Equity Positions: The company maintains an overweight position in US and Chinese equities while underweighting UK equities. The healthcare sector has been upgraded to overweight, while utilities have been downgraded to neutral [3][16] - Sector Performance: The company is bullish on sectors like communications, financials, healthcare, and technology, while being underweight in consumer staples, materials, and real estate [3][9] Investment Strategy - Bonds and Credit: The company remains neutral on bonds and underweight in investment-grade credit, citing limited upside potential. The focus is on EM local bonds and Gilts over JGBs and OATs [4][11] - Commodities: A preference for base metals over precious metals is noted, with a bullish stance on commodities reflecting strong global growth expectations [4][13] - Foreign Exchange: The strategy includes a long position in EMFX carry, with no specific views on EUR or DXY [4][14] Risk Management - Hedging Strategies: The company emphasizes the importance of hedges in a bubble environment, particularly through an underweight in credit [15][11] - Market Dynamics: The liquidity environment is described as benign, which supports the continuation of the equity bubble. The Fed's approach to rate cuts is also a critical factor [29][30] Sector-Specific Insights - Healthcare Sector: The healthcare sector is viewed positively due to multi-year valuation lows and potential benefits from AI advancements. The sector has been upgraded to overweight [77][79] - Technology Sector: The technology sector is expected to continue outperforming until the market peak, with a focus on both picks-and-shovels and adopters of AI technology [64][77] Geopolitical Considerations - China's AI Position: China's AI assets are considered cheaper than their US counterparts, with lower power prices providing a competitive advantage. The Chinese market is expected to benefit from the AI build-out with less correlation to US assets [39][40][46] Conclusion - Overall Strategy: The company maintains a pro-risk bias, favoring equities while being cautious about potential downturns. The focus remains on sectors that can benefit from the ongoing AI developments and a supportive macroeconomic environment [15][21][35]