大中华区半导体：传统存储持续超预期向好-Greater China Semiconductors-Old memory keeps surprising to the upside

Summary of Conference Call on Greater China Semiconductors Industry Overview - The focus is on the semiconductor industry in Greater China, particularly on old memory stocks such as DDR4, MLC NAND, and NOR Flash [2][3][6]. Key Insights 1. Pricing Power and Market Dynamics: - The pricing power for DDR4, MLC NAND, and NOR is expected to strengthen into 2026, indicating a bullish outlook for old memory stocks [2][3]. - Old memory contract pricing began to rise in late Q3 2025, suggesting a potential super-cycle driven by undersupply [3][4]. 2. Earnings Projections: - Consensus earnings for 2026 are anticipated to increase significantly, with a typical old memory up-cycle lasting 3-4 quarters [3][6]. 3. DDR4 Market Conditions: - Preliminary pricing negotiations for Q1 2026 are favorable, with potential contract pricing increases exceeding 100% due to strong enterprise demand [4][10]. - DDR4 16Gb is experiencing a significant shortage, with spot prices reaching US$100, up from US$45.5 [4]. 4. Flash Product Supply Cuts: - Supply cuts in MLC NAND and expected cuts in NOR are driving up prices, with NOR pricing projected to increase by over 20% in Q1 2026 [5][10]. - NOR undersupply is expected to widen to high single digits percentage-wise in 2026 [5]. 5. Investment Recommendations: - The top pick remains Winbond, with expectations of further upside in NOR and DRAM pricing and bit shipment output into 2026 [6]. - Other recommended stocks include Nanya Tech, which reported a 29% month-over-month sales increase in November, and GigaDevice, Macronix, APMemory, and PowerChip [6]. Additional Insights - The semiconductor industry is characterized by cyclical trends, and the current up-cycle is expected to last longer than typical cycles [6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring pricing trends and supply dynamics in the semiconductor market to identify investment opportunities [3][5][6]. Conclusion - The semiconductor industry in Greater China is poised for growth, particularly in the old memory segment, with strong pricing power and favorable market conditions expected to drive earnings higher in 2026. Investors are encouraged to consider the highlighted stocks for potential investment opportunities.