通信基础设施年度展望-AI 与数据增长将在何处释放价值-Year-Ahead Outlook-Communications Infrastructure – Where Will AI and Data Growth Deliver

Summary of Communications Infrastructure Outlook Industry Overview - Industry: Communications Infrastructure - Key Companies: American Tower Corp. (AMT), Equinix (EQIX), Digital Realty (DLR), SBA Communications (SBAC) - Market Performance: Communications Infrastructure shares underperformed in 2025, lagging the S&P 500 by approximately 25% [3][30] Core Insights - Revenue Growth: Forecasts indicate accelerating revenue growth across the sector, particularly in data centers and towers. Data center growth is driven by increasing capital spending, while tower valuations are seen as more favorable despite risks from carrier consolidation [1][3] - Data Consumption Trends: Global data generation is expected to grow by around 25% annually, with North American mobile data traffic per smartphone projected to increase by approximately 15% per annum over the next four years. These trends are anticipated to benefit the colocation data center and tower industries [3][29] - Valuation Adjustments: The price target for American Tower has been lowered from $235 to $225, reflecting a potential upside of about 30% from recent close prices. This adjustment is based on anticipated growth and market conditions [1][17] Key Themes for 2026 1. AI Investment and Adoption: Continued healthy investment in AI-related data centers is expected, although direct benefits to publicly held data center REITs may be limited in 2026 [8] 2. Carrier Consolidation: Ongoing consolidation among carriers poses risks to growth expectations, particularly with spectrum sales impacting leasing revenues [8][13] 3. Spectrum Auctions: Upcoming spectrum auctions are anticipated to provide long-term growth opportunities, although immediate benefits to organic leasing may be limited [40][42] Investment Perspectives - Data Center REITs: The outlook for data center REITs is balanced, with high valuation levels already priced in. However, there is optimism for the retail colocation business driven by hybrid cloud workloads and AI inference activities [28][33] - Tower REITs: US tower REITs are trading at decade-low multiples, presenting attractive risk/reward scenarios. The expectation is for net billings growth to accelerate into 2026, supported by a strong leasing backlog [27][43] - CoreSite Valuation: The core tower business of American Tower is undervalued compared to its peers, suggesting potential for significant appreciation [19] Financial Metrics - Expected Growth Rates: The report anticipates a 5-6% growth in AFFO/s for American Tower, with a potential multiple expansion from current lows [17][18] - Return on Investment: The return on invested capital (ROIC) for towers is above the cost of capital, driven by high-margin revenues, while data centers are expected to see improved ROIC as new capacities come online [38][39] Additional Considerations - Market Sentiment: The current market sentiment reflects a cautious approach due to uncertainties surrounding AI impacts and carrier consolidation, which may affect future growth expectations [18][26] - Long-term Drivers: The digitization of various sectors and the shift towards hybrid IT architectures are seen as durable growth drivers for the data center colocation industry [29][32] This summary encapsulates the key points from the communications infrastructure outlook, highlighting the dynamics of the industry, investment opportunities, and potential risks moving into 2026.