中国地产：11 月销售与价格疲软；行业低迷与政策的讨论不可避免-China Property_ Nov Sales & Price Soft; Inevitable Debate on Sector Weakness & Policy

Summary of Conference Call on China Property Sector Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the current state of the China property sector, highlighting significant declines in sales and prices in November 2025 compared to previous periods. [1][9] Key Points Sales Performance - November sales for 37 listed property companies decreased by 36% year-over-year (YoY) and 12% month-over-month (MoM), with a notable improvement from October's 42% YoY decline [1] - Major sales leaders in November included: - COLI: RMB 22 billion - Poly-A: RMB 18 billion - CRL & Greentown: RMB 15 billion each - CMSK: RMB 14 billion - A record sale of RMB 13 billion was achieved by SZ One Bay Park (CRL/COLI) on November 30, not included in the November data [1] - Year-to-date (YTD) sales for November showed a monthly low for Longfor, Yuexiu, and Gemdale, while Jinmao remained flat due to high-quality product offerings [1] - For the first 11 months of 2025, Jinmao saw a 21% YoY increase, while other companies like Yuexiu and Greentown experienced declines of 4% and 8% respectively [1] Market Dynamics - New home sales across 30 cities fell by 37% YoY and 10% MoM, with Tier-1 cities experiencing a 43% YoY decline [2] - The sell-through rate in Tier-1 cities dropped to 42%, influenced by secondary market pricing and limited high-quality supply [2] - Land sales value decreased by 5% YoY in November, with a new low land premium of 2.6% over the base price [3] Secondary Market Trends - Secondary sales dropped by 22% YoY but saw a 13% MoM increase, attributed to price cuts attracting primary demand [4] - Average weekly volume in November was 24,000 units, comparable to June 2025 levels [4] Policy Expectations - Anticipation of new local stimulus measures in November and December, including cash subsidies and potential mortgage interest subsidies [5] - Concerns that easing policies may not significantly alter home price expectations, particularly in Tier-1 cities [5] - The removal of purchase restrictions in Tier-1 cities could negatively impact Tier-2 cities [5] Market Sentiment - A two-way debate exists regarding weak sales and the potential for a policy-driven short-term rebound, particularly following Vanke's onshore debt extension announcement [6] - Expectations of earnings downgrades in December and January for several well-known companies due to soft sales [6] - Luxury mall retail sales are projected to maintain a positive trend in Q4 2025 after outperforming in Q3 [6] Additional Insights - The conference call emphasizes the ongoing challenges in the property sector, including declining sales, market volatility, and the impact of government policies on future performance [1][6] - Analysts recommend focusing on companies like Jinmao, C&D, and CRL as top picks amidst the current market conditions [6]