2026 印度消费展望：多重利好驱动改善-India Consumer Outlook 2026_ Most stars aligned to drive improvement

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: India Consumer Sector - Outlook for CY26/FY27: Improvement in staples volumes, sales, and EBITDA growth expected to reach 6%, 9%, and 2% year-on-year respectively, compared to 3%, 8%, and 5% in CY25/FY26, indicating a positive trend above the 10-year average [1][2][4] Core Insights and Arguments - Positive Macro Parameters: A combination of low inflation, improved wage growth, favorable agricultural conditions, GST cuts, and tax reforms are expected to enhance consumption demand [2][4] - Volume Growth Recovery: Anticipated mid-single-digit percentage growth in volumes after four years of low growth, with rural areas expected to see more significant improvements than urban areas [2][3][4] - Pricing Power: While pricing-led growth is limited, companies are expected to regain pricing power due to improved affordability and potential raw material price increases [2][3][4] - GST Rate Cuts: The reduction in GST rates for daily items is expected to drive formalization in the market, benefiting organized companies by narrowing the gap with unorganized products [2][3][4][99] - Quick Commerce Growth: The quick commerce channel is growing rapidly, providing a competitive edge for FMCG companies through convenience and discounts, while competition from D2C brands is easing [2][3][106] Additional Important Insights - Brand Performance: Companies with high market share and brand recall are likely to benefit from the new distribution channels, while D2C brands face challenges in scaling and profitability [3][106] - Margin Recovery: Improvement in gross profit margins is expected due to soft raw material prices and previous price hikes, with a return to normative levels anticipated in 2HFY26F [3][4][107] - Sector-Specific Trends: - Paints: Expected cyclical recovery with projected growth of 12% in volumes and 9% in sales for CY26/FY27 [3] - Jewelry: Strong demand growth of over 20% expected, driven by wedding season despite high gold prices [3] - Retail Categories: Other retail sectors like apparel and QSR are expected to recover gradually in CY26 [3][4] Valuation and Investment Recommendations - Valuation Levels: Consumer staple stocks are currently trading at reasonable levels, providing comfort for investment [3][4] - Top Picks: - Consumer Staples: Godrej Consumer Products, Tata Consumer Products, Marico, Britannia Industries [5][6] - Consumer Discretionary: Titan Co Ltd, Asian Paints [5][6] Conclusion - Overall Outlook: The confluence of favorable macroeconomic factors is expected to drive a recovery in consumption across the Indian consumer sector, with a preference for consumer discretionary over staples due to anticipated stronger cyclical recovery [4][6]