2026 全球股票展望：涨势延续-Global Equity 2026 Outlook_ The rally rolls on

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global equity market outlook for 2026, emphasizing the impact of AI, fiscal stimulus, and regional market preferences. Core Themes and Arguments 1. AI Trade Expansion: The next phase of the AI trade is expected to broaden beyond major players, with software infrastructure and non-US companies capturing more economic benefits [2][8][76]. 2. US Earnings Growth: Earnings growth is anticipated to broaden, with the "Magnificent 7" slowing to 18% year-over-year by Q4 2026, while the S&P 493 is expected to increase EPS growth to 17% from 9% [3][25]. 3. Cyclicals Outperforming: Cyclical sectors are projected to lead as the economy remains resilient, supported by AI investments and fiscal stimulus across major economies [3][42]. 4. International Equities: A weaker USD is expected to favor international equities, particularly in Emerging Markets (EM) and Europe excluding the UK [4][59]. 5. Global Investor Shift: There is a notable shift towards non-US AI stocks, with EM and Japan offering attractive growth opportunities at lower valuations [5][76][78]. 6. Valuation Support: Despite elevated equity valuations, they are supported by rising return on equity (ROE) and lower cost of equity (COE) [6][97]. 7. Retail Investor Demand: Retail investors are expected to remain significant buyers, with potential inflows from time deposits into equities if the Federal Reserve eases [5][112][113]. Important but Overlooked Content - AI Adoption Metrics: AI adoption among US companies is increasing, with 45% of firms having paid AI model subscriptions, indicating a growing trend that may not yet be fully priced into the market [9][19]. - Cost Control Strategies: Companies are expected to leverage operating leverage and cost control to enhance earnings, as evidenced by a rise in WARN notices indicating targeted layoffs rather than acute stress [26][27]. - Cyclicals and Consumer Discretionary: The consumer discretionary sector may show resilience despite mixed signals, supported by fiscal measures and lower interest rates [44][45]. - European Banks: European banks are positioned for growth with strong earnings revisions and attractive valuations compared to US peers [45][101]. - Emerging Market Dynamics: EM equities are becoming more growth-oriented, with regulatory changes in markets like China promoting buybacks and reducing dilution [61]. Regional Preferences - Overweight: Emerging Markets (prefer China and South Africa), Europe excluding the UK (favoring Germany, banks, and industrials). - Neutral: US (favoring cyclicals over defensives, avoiding small caps). - Underweight: Japan (cautious on banks, preferring materials) [5][59]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and themes discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the anticipated trends and dynamics in the global equity market for 2026.