中国地产：11 月百强房企销售额延续疲软态势-China Property_ November Top 100 Developers‘ Sales Remain Weak

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview: China Property Market - Sales Performance: The contract sales of the top 100 developers in China declined by 37% year-over-year (YoY) in November 2025, an improvement from a 41% decline in October 2025. The decline is attributed to a lower base effect from the policy impact in September 2024 [2][24][26]. - Sequential Decline: On a month-over-month (MoM) basis, contract sales fell by 12%, which is worse than the historical average decline of 4% MoM from 2020 to 2024 [2][7]. - Two-Year Comparison: Compared to November 2023, the sales dropped by 43%, worsening from a 38% decline in October 2025 [2][24]. - Factors Influencing Sales: The weak sales in November are attributed to: 1. Accelerated decline in secondary property prices in tier-1 cities over the past 2-3 months. 2. A significant reduction in new project launches, down 60% YoY across 12 cities [2][3]. Market Dynamics - Secondary Listings: Secondary listings across 50 cities increased by 10.1% YoY as of the end of November, up from 9.3% at the end of October. In tier-1 cities, the growth remained stable at 2.1% YoY [3][10]. - Homeowner Behavior: The rise in secondary listings is driven by: 1. Increased mortgage and operating loan default risks prompting banks to sell properties. 2. Homeowners selling properties ahead of loan maturities [3][10]. - Real-Time Transactions: Recent data indicates that secondary transaction units remain lower than levels seen in 2024 and 2023, reflecting subdued market sentiment [3][14]. Developer Performance - Market Share: The market share of state-owned enterprises (SOE) and private-owned enterprises (POE) developers stands at 53% and 32%, respectively [4][27]. - Sales Performance by Developer Type: Semi-SOE developers experienced a 40% YoY decline in contract sales, underperforming both SOE and POE developers, which saw declines of 36% YoY [4][27]. - Top Performers: Among SOE developers, Poly Property reported a 12% growth in contract sales, while C&D International and Yuexiu saw declines of 52% and 48% YoY, respectively [4][27]. Financial Metrics - Top 100 Developers' Sales: The combined gross contract sales value for the top 100 developers dropped by 37% YoY in November, compared to a 41% decline in October [6][24]. - Individual Developer Performance: Notable sales figures for November 2025 include: - CR Land: RMB 23.0 billion, -11% YoY - COLI: RMB 22.2 billion, -26% YoY - Poly Developments: RMB 18.1 billion, -25% YoY - Vanke: RMB 9.4 billion, -55% YoY [6][24]. Inventory Levels - High Inventory: As of October 2025, inventory levels in tier-1 cities remain high at 22 months, with the average inventory in 80 major cities reaching a historical high of 31.2 months [17][20]. Price Trends - Secondary Housing Prices: The average selling price (ASP) of secondary housing in six major cities has declined by 34% from its peak [21][22]. Risks and Opportunities - Downside Risks: Key risks include government policies restricting demand and mortgage lending, tight financing for developers, and lower-than-expected residential growth [35]. - Upside Opportunities: Potential for policy loosening that could boost residential property sales and investments, as well as large-scale asset disposals by developers to ease liquidity pressures [35].