全球宏观展望与策略：全球利率、大宗商品、汇率及新兴市场-Global Macro Outlook and Strategy_ Global Rates, Commodities, Currencies and Emerging Markets

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Focus: Global macroeconomic outlook, interest rates, commodities, currencies, and emerging markets Core Insights US Rates - Yields are expected to remain stable in the short term, with a forecast for 2-year yields around 3.60% and 10-year yields at 4.25% by 1H26, and 3.85% and 4.35% by YE26 respectively [10][33] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to implement two rate cuts in 1H26, with a target range for the funds rate of 3.25-3.5% by 1Q26 [10][44] - The unemployment rate is projected to peak at 4.5% in 1Q26 before easing to 4.3% by 4Q26 [10] International Rates - Growth in developed markets (DM) is expected to remain at or above potential, with inflation gradually declining but remaining above target in some areas [4] - Central banks in DM are likely to pause or conclude easing cycles in 1H26, with specific forecasts for 10-year yields: 4.35% for UST, 2.75% for Bunds, and 4.75% for gilts by 4Q26 [4][36] Commodities - The oil market is expected to stabilize due to rising demand and production cuts, with a bullish outlook for gold projected to reach $5,000/oz [6] - Agricultural stock-to-use ratios are expected to remain low, indicating potential supply constraints [6] Currencies - A bearish bias on the USD is anticipated, driven by positive growth in the rest of the world (RoW) and US twin deficits [52] - Preference for high beta/yielding currencies, with key themes including global procyclicality and synchronized central bank pauses [53] Emerging Markets - Emerging markets (EM) are expected to experience lower macro volatility, supporting local markets in 2026 [6] - Growth and inflation in EM are projected to remain stable, with limited central bank easing [6] Additional Important Insights - The Treasury is well-funded through FY25, but a significant funding gap is expected to emerge in FY26, with coupon size increases anticipated starting in November 2026 [17][20] - The demand for Treasuries is shifting towards more price-sensitive investors, which may help keep long-term yields anchored at higher levels [29] - The passage of the OBBBA raised the debt limit by $5 trillion, expected to last until the second half of 2027 [23] - Seasonal patterns suggest a gradual decrease in bill sizes into December, followed by a rebound as corporate taxes lift the Treasury General Account (TGA) [21][23] Conclusion - The macroeconomic outlook indicates a cautious but stable environment for interest rates, commodities, and currencies, with specific attention to the evolving dynamics in emerging markets and the implications of fiscal policies on Treasury demand and yields.