宏观｜《2026年财政收支展望》

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the macroeconomic outlook for China and Japan, focusing on fiscal revenue and monetary policy implications for 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][8][10]. Key Insights and Arguments 1. China's Fiscal Revenue Outlook for 2026: - China's broad fiscal revenue is expected to stabilize and increase, driven by stable macro tax burdens, anti-involution policies, performance of special taxes, and enhanced tax collection measures [1][2][3][4]. - The overall fiscal revenue is projected to show uncertainty but trend towards stability [4]. 2. Factors Influencing China's Fiscal Revenue: - Stable Macro Tax Burden: Emphasis on maintaining a reasonable macro tax burden and regulating tax incentives to address the ongoing decline in macro tax levels [3]. - Anti-Involution Policies: These policies are anticipated to help improve prices in 2026, particularly benefiting domestic value-added tax revenues from manufacturing and wholesale sectors [3]. - Performance of Special Taxes: The shift towards domestic demand may reduce the drag from export tax refunds, while higher trading volumes in the securities market could enhance stamp duty contributions [3]. - Strengthened Tax Collection Measures: Increased coverage and regulation of personal income tax and compliance requirements for local government investment incentives are expected to improve fiscal stability [3]. 3. Japan's Economic Stimulus and Fiscal Challenges: - Japan's government has introduced a ¥21.3 trillion economic stimulus plan, primarily targeting inflation and social subsidies, which is expected to raise the fiscal deficit to 3.0% in 2026 [1][8]. - The effectiveness of Japan's fiscal expansion is anticipated to be weaker compared to the U.S. and Germany, with a projected GDP impact of only 0.5 percentage points [8][9]. 4. Market Risks and Volatility: - The combination of fiscal expansion and monetary tightening in Japan has raised risks of a reversal in yen carry trades, particularly as the Bank of Japan shifts towards a hawkish stance [8][10]. - Current market conditions show a balanced position in yen trading, with net long positions emerging, indicating a more stable environment compared to previous extremes [11][12]. 5. U.S. Economic Data and Implications: - Recent U.S. economic data, including a decline in ADP employment figures and stagnant PCE consumption growth, suggest a weakening labor market and potential for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [7]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - The records highlight the importance of monitoring the interplay between U.S. and Japanese monetary policies, particularly during periods of contrasting stances, which could create volatility in the markets [10]. - The potential for Japan's fiscal measures to lead to increased inflationary pressures, despite initial subsidies aimed at reducing costs, is a critical consideration for future economic stability [9][12].