宏观周周谈：日加息、美降息，还会引发全球风险吗？

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the Japanese Yen and its impact on global financial markets, particularly in relation to U.S. Treasury bonds and U.S. stock markets. Core Points and Arguments 1. Yen's Exchange Rate Dynamics: The Japanese Yen's value is significantly influenced by global risk events and capital flows, with the Yen appreciating during risk-off scenarios and depreciating due to carry trades [1][3][4]. 2. Shift in Investment Behavior: Post-financial crisis, Japanese institutional investors have become the dominant force in overseas investments, replacing individual residents. This shift has been driven by negative interest rates prompting a search for higher yields abroad [1][4][7]. 3. Carry Trade Mechanism: Carry trades involve borrowing low-interest Yen and converting it into higher-yielding currencies like the U.S. Dollar. This practice has led to substantial capital outflows from Japan, impacting global financial markets [3][4][7]. 4. Impact of U.S. and Japanese Monetary Policies: The difference in yields between U.S. and Japanese bonds significantly affects arbitrage opportunities. A decrease in this yield spread can lead to shifts in investment strategies between the two countries [9][10]. 5. Market Reactions to Rate Hikes: The Bank of Japan's rate hikes since 2022 have led to temporary appreciation of the Yen and subsequent volatility in U.S. stock markets, with notable declines in indices following these announcements [10][11]. 6. Future Monetary Policy Expectations: There is a strong market expectation for further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, which could lead to additional adjustments in U.S. stock markets, especially if new risk events arise [11][12]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. Asset Price Volatility: The influx and outflow of capital due to carry trades can lead to significant fluctuations in asset prices, particularly in U.S. equities and real estate markets [3][4][5]. 2. Long-term Trends in Yen Valuation: Since 2012, the Yen has been on a depreciating trend, contrasting with its previous status as a safe-haven currency. This change has been influenced by a shift towards long-term investment strategies by Japanese institutions [7][8]. 3. Global Capital Market Implications: The ongoing carry trade dynamics and potential shifts in monetary policy across major economies necessitate close monitoring of currency movements and their implications for global capital flows [13][14].