“如何解读11月生猪产能数据”专家电话会

Summary of the Conference Call on November Pig Production Data Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the pig farming industry in China, specifically discussing the production capacity and market trends as of November 2025 [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments Pig Production Capacity - The national breeding sow inventory decreased by 0.62% month-on-month in November 2025, but increased by 0.82% year-on-year. Compared to the peak in June, there was a reduction of 380,000 sows, primarily due to policy guidance, market expectations, and disease impacts [1][2]. - The average weight of pigs at slaughter in November was 124.66 kg, showing a slight increase of 0.09% month-on-month but a decrease of 0.83% year-on-year [1][6]. Market Prices and Profitability - The average price of pigs continued to decline, reaching 11.13 CNY/kg by December 5, 2025. This price level resulted in over 95% of enterprises operating at a loss, with losses of approximately 100 CNY per head for self-breeding and around 300 CNY per head for piglet fattening [1][5]. - The price is expected to remain below 12 CNY/kg before the Spring Festival due to sufficient supply and increased slaughtering pace in December [1][10]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of pigs in November was ample, with a decrease in large enterprise slaughtering but also a significant reduction in secondary fattening targets, which dropped by 71% [1][7][8]. - The demand in southern regions was weak due to higher temperatures and lower stocking intentions, contributing to the price decline [1][8]. Future Price Predictions - It is anticipated that pig prices will not exceed 12 CNY/kg before the Spring Festival, with a potential slight increase in mid-December due to increased stocking by downstream buyers and reduced slaughtering by farming groups [1][10]. Disease Impact - Recent outbreaks of pig diseases in regions like Shandong and Jiangsu have affected both small-scale and large farming groups, leading to a decrease in breeding sow inventory [1][4][11]. - The disease situation has worsened compared to the previous year, with a significant increase in incidence rates, particularly in the northern regions [1][21]. Financial Health of the Industry - The overall cash flow situation in the pig farming industry is poor, with losses per pig reaching 300 to 400 CNY since August 2025. Approximately 60% to 70% of farming companies are experiencing cash flow difficulties [1][18][19]. Cost Trends and Future Outlook - The cost of pig farming is expected to continue decreasing, primarily due to lower feed prices and the adoption of superior breeding stock, which enhances reproductive performance and reduces feed conversion ratios [1][23][24]. - The industry is likely to see a recovery in profitability by the second half of 2026 as production capacity decreases and demand increases during peak consumption seasons [1][15]. Additional Important Insights - The differences in data reporting between the Ministry of Agriculture and third-party organizations highlight the complexities in understanding market dynamics and the impact of policy measures on production capacity [1][12]. - The willingness of small and medium-sized farms to reduce production capacity is low, as they anticipate potential profits during peak demand periods [1][13]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the pig farming industry in China.