美国经济：关税开始抑制实际消费支出-US Economics-Tariffs start to cool real spending

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the US Economics sector, focusing on the impact of tariffs on real spending and inflation trends in North America. Core Insights and Arguments - Core PCE Inflation: Core PCE inflation rose by 0.20% month-over-month (m/m) in September, slightly below expectations of 0.22% [2][3] - Goods Prices: There was an increase in goods prices, indicating a gradual passthrough of tariffs, which is expected to weigh on real goods spending, particularly in the fourth quarter (4Q) [2][5] - Real Personal Spending: Real personal spending was flat in September, with a tracking of 3Q real spending up 2.7% quarter-over-quarter (q/q) seasonally adjusted annual rate (saar) [2][19] - Nominal Income: Nominal income increased by 0.4%, with labor compensation also up by 0.4%. Real disposable personal income rose by 0.1% m/m [2][24] - Spending Trends: Real goods spending fell by 0.4% m/m, while real services spending rose by 0.2% m/m. This indicates a shift in consumer behavior towards services amidst rising goods prices [20][21] Additional Important Details - Tariff Impact: The total tariff push to PCE prices has been estimated at about 30 basis points (bp) so far, with expectations of continued inflationary pressure from tariffs into 4Q and 1Q [5][25] - Housing Inflation: Core services inflation decelerated, particularly in shelter inflation, which is believed to be exaggerated due to regional noise and seasonal factors [6][7] - Airfares: A slight underperformance in core inflation expectations was attributed to airfares, which accelerated less than anticipated [7] - Future Projections: The forecast for 4Q core PCE is set at 3.0%, slightly below the Federal Reserve's forecast of 3.1% [8] Conclusion - The overall economic outlook indicates a cooling in real spending due to rising goods prices driven by tariffs, with expectations of slower consumption growth in the upcoming quarters. The data suggests a complex interplay between inflation, consumer behavior, and economic policy that will require close monitoring [25]