印度消费：隧道尽头的曙光-尚未到来-India Consumer_ Light at the end of tunnel_ Not yet.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the Indian consumer market, particularly evaluating the anticipated recovery in consumption for the festive season of 3Q F26 [1][2]. - The analysis is based on three data points: UPI transaction data, app usage data for e-commerce, and management commentary from 2Q F26 conference calls [1]. Core Insights - UPI Transaction Data: - UPI transactions now account for approximately 39% of India's Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) [2][21]. - The growth in UPI transactions has been slowing, indicating that the increase is reflective of underlying category growth rather than merely a shift in payment methods [2]. - No consumption category is showing definitive festive momentum, with most categories experiencing lower YoY growth in October 2025 compared to 2Q F26 [3][28]. - E-commerce and Quick Commerce Trends: - Quick Commerce platforms like Blinkit, JioMart, and BigBasket are experiencing significant DAU growth of 70-200% during the festive period, while traditional e-commerce platforms like Amazon and Flipkart are seeing declines [4][58]. - Food delivery services have shown muted DAU growth, with Domino's being the strongest performer in the food services space [5][66]. - Management Commentary: - Mixed sentiments from management across sectors: - Food Services/QSRs reported better-than-expected trends but remain cautious due to a challenging demand environment [6][70]. - FMCG companies faced temporary disruptions due to GST changes but expect recovery in H2 [6][71]. - Fashion retail saw strong festive traction, with expectations of continued momentum into the wedding season [6][70]. - Jewellery companies reported record festive sales, indicating strong confidence in sustaining momentum [6][73]. - Alcohol brands are showing early signs of recovery, with October performing better than previous months [6][74]. Investment Implications - There is insufficient evidence to suggest a broad-based consumption revival in 3Q F26 despite government interventions [7]. - Categories such as jewellery, alcohol, and fast food are showing some festive growth momentum [7]. - Consumer preference for digital channels, particularly Quick Commerce, remains strong [7]. Additional Insights - Category Performance: - Essentials like grocery and general merchandise show stable growth, while discretionary categories like electronics and fashion retail are experiencing significant declines [28]. - Liquor and department stores are outperforming other categories, indicating a shift in consumer spending patterns [28]. - DAU Trends: - The analysis of DAU growth around Diwali indicates that Quick Commerce is becoming a structural consumption channel, while traditional e-commerce platforms are struggling [58][59]. - Management Outlook: - Companies across various sectors are cautiously optimistic about the upcoming months, with expectations of improved performance post-Diwali and during the wedding season [70][72]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state of the Indian consumer market, sector-specific insights, and management outlooks.