中国股票策略 2026：韧性、再平衡与风险-China Equity Strategy_ 2026_ Resilience, rebalance, and risks

Summary of Key Points from the Equity Research Report Industry Overview - The report focuses on the China equity market and its performance outlook for 2026, highlighting the transition from a liquidity-driven rally to one supported by earnings growth [3][10]. Core Insights and Arguments Market Resilience - The China equity market is expected to remain resilient in 2026 due to: - Improving innovation capabilities, supported by tech-related IPOs [4][33]. - Abundant liquidity from deposit migration, insurance funds, and mutual funds [4][51]. - An earnings upcycle, particularly in information technology and materials, with consensus earnings revisions of 6.1% and 4.1% year-to-date, respectively [4][58]. Rebalancing Trends - A shift is anticipated in 2026 from a tech-centric market to a tech-and-consumer focus, driven by: - Consumer names benefiting from low valuations and policy support [5][71]. - The expansion of the AI rally from overseas to domestic value chains [5][71]. - A recommendation for a balanced investment approach, as growth is expected to outperform value [5][71]. Risks and Opportunities - Upside Risks: - Potential policy measures to stimulate the economy, particularly in consumer services and infrastructure [6]. - Downside Risks: - Concerns regarding the real estate sector, particularly sluggish sales in first-tier cities and issues surrounding Vanke's bonds [6]. - Elevated valuations in the AI sector amid discussions of a potential bubble [6]. Earnings and Valuation Insights - The report maintains end-2026 index targets for SHCOMP at 4,500, CSI300 at 5,400, and SZCOMP at 16,000, indicating potential upsides of 16-24% driven by earnings growth rather than re-rating [3][20]. - The earnings growth forecast for 2026 includes: - 11.5% for SHCOMP, 14.8% for CSI300, and 26.7% for SZCOMP [21]. - A significant divergence in sector performance, with information technology expected to deliver the highest year-on-year growth rate of 39.4% [58]. Investment Themes and Stock Picks - The report identifies four investment themes with ten related stocks: 1. AI names with lower PEG: Innolight and Shennan Circuits. 2. Going global: CATL, Hansoh Pharma, and Wuxi XDC. 3. Underweight industries: Media, Luzhou Laojiao, and Bank of Ningbo. 4. Fiscal stimulus: Jinjiang Hotels and Pinggao Electric [7]. Additional Important Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of innovation as a key catalyst for the stock market, with high-tech sector profits projected to rise to over RMB 2.2 trillion in 2025, up from RMB 1.4 trillion in 2015 [30]. - The increasing number of IPOs in high-tech sectors indicates a strong focus on innovation, with significant activity in industrials, IT, and consumer discretionary sectors [42][49]. - Liquidity is expected to remain robust, with non-bank deposits increasing by RMB 6.4 trillion since April 2025 and mutual fund issuance up 89% year-on-year [51][54]. This comprehensive analysis provides a detailed outlook on the China equity market, highlighting key trends, risks, and investment opportunities for 2026.