中国宏观追踪：年内最后几场政策会议临近-China Macro Tracker_ Last policy meetings for the year approaching

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the Chinese economy, particularly regarding the property sector and services industry, which are experiencing renewed pressure and signs of weakness [2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - Economic Growth Projections: Despite a slowdown since Q3, China is expected to achieve a growth rate of 4.9% in 2025, aligning with the target of "around 5%" for the current year [2]. - Fiscal Policy Support: Anticipation of continued fiscal support through special bonds, with the Minister of Finance indicating potential for stronger fiscal measures next year. A total of RMB7 trillion in project investments is expected, driven by new policy tools to assist local governments [3]. - Monetary Policy Stance: The monetary policy is expected to remain "moderately loose," with ongoing liquidity support through various measures, including RRR cuts and treasury purchases. Interest rate cuts are now anticipated in 2026 instead of this year [3]. - Industrial Profit Decline: Industrial profits fell by 5.5% year-on-year in October, attributed to a higher base and rising financial costs, indicating squeezed profit margins in certain sectors due to oversupply and price competition [4]. - Anti-involution Campaign: The campaign aimed at addressing unfair pricing and promoting high-quality development is gaining momentum, although real indicators like pricing improvements have shown limited progress [5][7]. - Battery Industry Regulation: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is pushing for faster policy support in the battery sector, where capacity utilization was below 50% in 2024, and prices have dropped by 80% over three years [8]. - Demand-Side Stimulus: A plan to boost consumption has been released, targeting the creation of a three trillion-yuan consumer sector by 2027 and emphasizing both supply and demand-side measures [12]. Additional Important Insights - Sector-Specific Developments: The nonferrous metals industry saw a 14% year-on-year profit increase in October, suggesting some sectors are responding positively to regulatory measures [9]. - Consumption Trends: The drop in services activity highlights the need for more consumption stimulus, with a focus on expanding services consumption and potential subsidy programs [12]. - Real Estate Market: New home sales in Tier-1 cities have shown seasonal increases, while overall new home sales remain below historical levels [40][46]. - Logistics and Travel: Metro volumes in large cities remain elevated, and cross-city travel is above historical levels, indicating a recovery in mobility [52][54]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the Chinese economy and specific industries.