全球电池供应链：电动汽车需求平淡；储能系统需求上升-Global Battery Supply Chain _Flattish EV; Higher BESS_ Bush_ Flattish EV; Higher BESS

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the Global Battery Supply Chain, particularly in the context of Electric Vehicles (EVs) and Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS). - The global battery installation forecast for 2030 is projected to reach 3.8 TWh [2][8]. Core Insights and Arguments Battery Demand Forecast - The global battery demand forecast for 2025-2030 has been revised upward by 1-11%, with BESS seeing a positive revision of 4-37% while EV battery demand is adjusted down by -2% to 3% [2]. - By 2030, BESS is expected to account for 31% of total battery demand, with an estimated 1.19 TWh [2]. Regional Insights - China: The BESS installation forecast has been lifted by 2-56%, reaching 666 GWh by 2030, driven by national policies and local capacity compensation mechanisms [2][3]. - U.S.: The BESS demand forecast has been increased by 14-21%, projecting 177 GWh by 2030, supported by the continuation of the investment tax credit (ITC) and data center expansions [2][3]. EV Market Adjustments - Global EV sales forecasts for 2025-2030 have been reduced by 1-7%, primarily due to anticipated changes in China and the U.S. [4]. - In China, EV sales are expected to be impacted by a 5% increase in EV purchase taxes starting in 2026, while U.S. sales are lowered by 7-36% due to the discontinuation of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit [4]. Product Mix and Market Trends - The share of Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) in total EV sales is projected to rise to 73-80% from previous forecasts, driven by higher adoption in China [4]. - The EU is expected to see moderate pricing pressure in the mass market segment, but EV sales are lifted by 3-10% due to CO2 targets [4]. Investment Recommendations - Top Picks: LG Energy Solution (LGES) is highlighted as well-positioned to capture U.S. BESS market share, leading peers by 18 months in onshore capacity expansion [5]. - For the ex-U.S. market, Sungrow and CSI Solar are preferred due to robust global BESS demand, despite current low margins for Chinese BESS manufacturers [5]. Additional Important Insights - The U.S. is experiencing electricity supply/demand imbalances, with BESS viewed as a solution due to government subsidies and short lead times [3]. - The next catalyst for the U.S. market is expected to be guidance from the U.S. Department of Treasury on material assistance cost ratio calculations by the end of 2025 [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of converting U.S. NCM EV battery capacity to subsidy-eligible LFP BESS to meet long-term demand [3]. Financial Projections - The global battery demand is projected to grow significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 21% in 2025, reaching 1,530 GWh [8]. - The U.S. BESS demand forecast indicates a steady increase, with total capacity expected to reach 177.3 GWh by 2030 [19]. Conclusion - The global battery market is poised for growth, particularly in BESS, driven by policy support and increasing demand from data centers and renewable energy integration. The EV market faces challenges but is adapting with a shift towards BEVs. Investment opportunities exist in leading manufacturers positioned to capitalize on these trends.